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MFC Metalurh vs Ahrobiznes V. Prediction— Ukraine - Persha Liga

Regular Season - 24 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 08:00

MFC Metalurh

PPG 0.64 · HOME

1 – 6

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Ahrobiznes V.

PPG 1.36 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.36) vs Home POOR (0.64)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.5%0-119.6%0-213.2%0-35.9%0-4+2.7%1 1-08.4%1-111.4%1-27.7%1-33.5%1-4+1.6%2 2-02.4%2-13.3%2-22.2%2-31.0%2-4+0.5%3 3-00.5%3-10.6%3-20.4%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 16.0% — — —

Draw 28.3% — — —

Away win 55.7% — — —

Over 2.5 30.4% — — —

Over 3.5 13.1% — — —

BTTS 32.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 1.3%

Bet Hit 78%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 61%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-6

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob32.6%

A 56% / xG 0.6-1.3 / U2.5 30% / NoBTTS 33%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 19.6%

#2 0–0 14.5%

#3 0–2 13.2%

#4 1–1 11.4%

#5 1–0 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

MFC Metalurh0.6

Ahrobiznes V.1.3

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 30.4% · O3.5 PROB 13.1%

Form & verdict PPG

MFC METALURH · PPG 0.64

AHROBIZNES V. · PPG 1.36

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.36) vs Home POOR (0.64)

Win probability 1X2

MFC Metalurh (H) 16.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 28.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Ahrobiznes V. (A) 55.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

MFC Metalurh face Ahrobiznes V. in Ukraine - Persha Liga on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives MFC Metalurh a 16% chance, the draw 28% and Ahrobiznes V. 56%, so Ahrobiznes V. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.6 for MFC Metalurh and 1.3 for Ahrobiznes V. (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 30% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 33% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, MFC Metalurh are averaging 0.64 points per game versus 1.36 for Ahrobiznes V.. This match finished 1-6.

MFC Metalurh vs Ahrobiznes V. Prediction— Ukraine - Persha Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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