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Mariupol vs Inhulets Prediction— Ukraine - Persha Liga

Regular Season - 24 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 12:00

Mariupol

PPG 1.27 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Inhulets

PPG 1.64 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.6%0-114.6%0-28.5%0-33.3%0-4+1.2%1 1-011.4%1-113.3%1-27.7%1-33.0%1-4+1.1%2 2-05.2%2-16.1%2-23.5%2-31.4%2-4+0.5%3 3-01.6%3-11.8%3-21.1%3-30.4%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.5%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.6% — — —

Draw 29.8% — — —

Away win 41.6% — — —

Over 2.5 34.4% — — —

Over 3.5 15.7% — — —

BTTS 41.1% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 1.3%

Bet Hit 78%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob41.1%

A 42% / xG 0.9-1.2 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 41%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 14.6%

#2 1–1✓ 13.3%

#3 0–0 12.6%

#4 1–0 11.4%

#5 0–2 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mariupol0.9

Inhulets1.2

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.4% · O3.5 PROB 15.7%

Form & verdict PPG

MARIUPOL · PPG 1.27

INHULETS · PPG 1.64

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.27) vs Away GOOD (1.64)

Win probability 1X2

Mariupol (H) 28.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 29.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Inhulets (A) 41.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Mariupol face Inhulets in Ukraine - Persha Liga on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mariupol a 29% chance, the draw 30% and Inhulets 42%, so Inhulets are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Mariupol and 1.2 for Inhulets (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 41% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mariupol are averaging 1.27 points per game versus 1.64 for Inhulets. This match finished 1-1.

Mariupol vs Inhulets Prediction— Ukraine - Persha Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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