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Ferroviária vs Maranhão Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Regular Season - 15 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 20:00

Ferroviária

PPG 1.86 · HOME

UPCOMING

Maranhão

PPG 0.86 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 52.4% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.1%0-18.5%0-22.4%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-020.0%1-111.3%1-23.2%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.3%2-17.5%2-22.1%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-05.9%3-13.3%3-20.9%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-11.5%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.4% 55.6% 1.80 -5.7%

Draw 28.1% 34.5% 2.90 -11.1%

Away win 19.5% 22.2% 4.50 -7.3%

Over 2.5 39.3% 42.0% 2.38 -6.5%

Over 3.5 19.7% 23.1% 4.33 -8.8%

BTTS 46.4% 45.5% 2.20 +2.1%

Home O1.5 38.5% 45.5% 2.20 -15.3%

Away O1.5 19.1% 22.2% 4.50 -8.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 66 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 59%

ROI -25.7%

Bet Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 42%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob46.4%

H 52% / xG 1.3-0.6 / U2.5 39% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 20.0%

#2 0–0 15.1%

#3 2–0 13.3%

#4 1–1 11.3%

#5 2–1 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ferroviária1.3

Maranhão0.6

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 39.3% · O3.5 PROB 19.7%

Form & verdict PPG

FERROVIÁRIA · PPG 1.86

MARANHÃO · PPG 0.86

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.76 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Ferroviária (H) 52.4%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -5.7%

Draw 28.1%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -11.1%

Maranhão (A) 19.5%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -7.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ferroviária face Maranhão in Brazil - Serie C on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ferroviária a 52% chance, the draw 28% and Maranhão 20%, so Ferroviária are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Ferroviária and 0.6 for Maranhão (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 39% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ferroviária are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 0.86 for Maranhão. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +5.1%.

Ferroviária vs Maranhão Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Match Preview & Prediction

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