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Flandria vs V. San Carlos Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Tuesday, April 14, 2026, 18:30

Flandria

PPG 1.50 · HOME

1 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

V. San Carlos

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 85.1% vs bookmaker-implied 38.5% — a clear edge.

+121.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.9%0-11.5%0-21.4%0-30.8%0-4+0.5%1 1-02.6%1-14.6%1-24.0%1-32.4%1-4+1.5%2 2-03.9%2-16.8%2-26.0%2-33.5%2-4+2.3%3 3-03.9%3-16.8%3-26.0%3-33.5%3-4+2.3%4+ 4+-06.0%4+-110.5%4+-29.2%4+-35.4%4+-4+3.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 62.6% 51.3% 1.95 +22.1%

Draw 16.5% 32.3% 3.10 -48.9%

Away win 21.0% 26.7% 3.75 -21.3%

Over 2.5 85.1% 38.5% 2.60 +121.3%

Over 3.5 69.5% — — —

BTTS 78.5% 46.5% 2.15 +68.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 96 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 63%

ROI 21.9%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 73%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-4

xG (home)3.0 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob78.5%

H 63% / xG 3.0-1.8 / O2.5 85% / BTTS 78%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 6.8%

#2 3–1 6.8%

#3 2–2 6.0%

#4 3–2 6.0%

#5 4–1 5.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Flandria3.0

V. San Carlos1.8

COMBINED 4.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 85.1% · O3.5 PROB 69.5%

Form & verdict PPG

FLANDRIA · PPG 1.50

V. SAN CARLOS · PPG 0.33

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.50) vs P(Home)=62.6%

Win probability 1X2

Flandria (H) 62.6%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV +22.1%

Draw 16.5%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -48.9%

V. San Carlos (A) 21.0%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -21.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Flandria face V. San Carlos in Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana on Tuesday, April 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Flandria a 63% chance, the draw 17% and V. San Carlos 21%, so Flandria are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.0 for Flandria and 1.8 for V. San Carlos (4.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 85% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 79% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Flandria are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.33 for V. San Carlos. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +121.3%. This match finished 1-4.

Flandria vs V. San Carlos Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Match Preview & Prediction

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