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AIK W vs Kristianstad W Prediction— Sweden - Damallsvenskan

Matchday 16 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 11:00

AIK W

PPG 2.38 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLLL

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Kristianstad W

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWDW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.1% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.2%0-14.5%0-23.1%0-31.5%0-4+0.7%1 1-06.6%1-19.2%1-26.4%1-33.0%1-4+1.4%2 2-06.7%2-19.4%2-26.5%2-33.0%2-4+1.4%3 3-04.6%3-16.3%3-24.4%3-32.1%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-03.7%4+-15.2%4+-23.6%4+-31.7%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.4% 44.4% 2.25 +6.7%

Draw 22.7% 31.3% 3.20 -16.4%

Away win 29.9% 37.0% 2.70 -11.6%

Over 2.5 63.1% 58.8% 1.70 +7.3%

Over 3.5 39.3% 38.2% 2.62 +3.0%

BTTS 61.1% 64.5% 1.55 -5.3%

Home O1.5 57.5% 50.0% 2.00 +15.0%

Away O1.5 40.9% 44.4% 2.25 -8.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 63 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -18.7%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob61.1%

H 47% / xG 2.0-1.4 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.2%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 1–2 6.4%

#4 2–0 6.7%

#5 2–2 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

AIK W2.0

Kristianstad W1.4

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.1% · O3.5 PROB 39.3%

Form & verdict PPG

AIK W · PPG 2.38

KRISTIANSTAD W · PPG 1.14

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.64 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

AIK W (H) 47.4%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +6.7%

Draw 22.7%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -16.4%

Kristianstad W (A) 29.9%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -11.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

AIK W face Kristianstad W in Sweden - Damallsvenskan on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives AIK W a 47% chance, the draw 23% and Kristianstad W 30%, so AIK W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for AIK W and 1.4 for Kristianstad W (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, AIK W are averaging 2.38 points per game versus 1.14 for Kristianstad W. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +22.7%. This match finished 0-1.

AIK W vs Kristianstad W Prediction— Sweden - Damallsvenskan

Match Preview & Prediction

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