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Häcken W vs AIK W Prediction— Sweden - Damallsvenskan

Matchday 15 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 11:00

Häcken W

PPG 3.00 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWW

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

AIK W

PPG 0.83 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLLL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 78.4% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.2%0-11.0%0-20.4%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-04.4%1-13.5%1-21.4%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-08.0%2-16.3%2-22.5%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-09.7%3-17.6%3-23.0%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-022.4%4+-117.5%4+-26.8%4+-31.8%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 76.6% 83.3% 1.20 -8.1%

Draw 15.7% 18.2% 5.50 -8.2%

Away win 7.7% 10.8% 9.25 -17.3%

Over 2.5 71.8% 69.4% 1.44 +3.4%

Over 3.5 51.6% 50.0% 2.00 +3.2%

BTTS 53.0% 54.1% 1.85 -1.9%

Home O1.5 78.4% 78.1% 1.28 +0.4%

Away O1.5 19.8% 18.2% 5.50 +5.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 63 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -18.7%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 68%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)3.6 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob53.0%

H 77% / xG 3.6-0.8 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 9.7%

#2 4–0 8.8%

#3 2–0 8.0%

#4 1–1 3.5%

#5 3–1 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Häcken W3.6

AIK W0.8

COMBINED 4.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 71.8% · O3.5 PROB 51.6%

Form & verdict PPG

HÄCKEN W · PPG 3.00

AIK W · PPG 0.83

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.84 for Home, form 3.00 vs 0.83 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Häcken W (H) 76.6%

ODDS 1.20 · IMPLIED 83.3% EV -8.1%

Draw 15.7%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV -8.2%

AIK W (A) 7.7%

ODDS 9.25 · IMPLIED 10.8% EV -17.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Häcken W face AIK W in Sweden - Damallsvenskan on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Häcken W a 77% chance, the draw 16% and AIK W 8%, so Häcken W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.6 for Häcken W and 0.8 for AIK W (4.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Häcken W are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 0.83 for AIK W. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +5.3%. This match finished 4-1.

Häcken W vs AIK W Prediction— Sweden - Damallsvenskan

Match Preview & Prediction

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