Today / Sweden - Damallsvenskan / Vittsjö W vs Norrköping W
Vittsjö W vs Norrköping W Prediction— Sweden - Damallsvenskan
Vittsjö W
PPG 1.57 · HOME
1 – 1
FULL TIME
✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME
Norrköping W
PPG 1.00 · AWAY
// Model verdict
Home
Model probability 50.1% vs bookmaker-implied 43.5% — a clear edge.
+15.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗
ROI TRACKED Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →
0 1 2 3 4+ 0 0-014.1% 0-110.2% 0-23.7% 0-30.9% 0-4+0.2% 1 1-017.4% 1-112.6% 1-24.6% 1-31.1% 1-4+0.2% 2 2-010.7% 2-17.8% 2-22.8% 2-30.7% 2-4+0.1% 3 3-04.4% 3-13.2% 3-21.2% 3-30.3% 3-4+0.1% 4+ 4+-01.8% 4+-11.3% 4+-20.5% 4+-30.1% 4+-4+0.0%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW ▣ FT RESULT
Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV
Market Model Implied Odds EV
Home win 50.1% 43.5% 2.30 +15.2%
Draw 26.5% 29.9% 3.35 -6.7%
Away win 23.4% 39.2% 2.55 -24.2%
Over 2.5 44.1% 57.8% 1.73 -23.7%
Over 3.5 25.6% 36.5% 2.74 -17.9%
BTTS 47.6% 64.5% 1.55 -26.2%
Home O1.5 33.4% 48.1% 2.08 -30.5%
Away O1.5 17.9% 43.5% 2.30 -35.3%
League track record ↗
Based on 63 resolved predictions
1X2 Acc 52%
O2.5 71%
BTTS 49%
Score Hit 40%
ROI -18.7%
Bet Hit 50%
Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL
2 – 0 35% CONFIDENCE
✘ MISS — FT 1-1 xG (home) 1.2 xG (away) 0.7 BTTS prob 47.6%
H 50% / xG 1.2-0.7 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 48%
Top 5 Poisson scorelines
#1 1–0 17.4%
#2 0–0 14.1%
#3 2–0 10.7%
#4 1–1✓ 12.6%
#5 0–1 10.2%
Form & verdict PPG
✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage MODERATE_HOME xG gap +0.51 - moderate Home edge
Season statistics shots · possession · passes · corners · cards · xG + Season Statistics average per match · 5 matches · 2026 Vittsjö W ▾ lower is better Norrköping W
Attack
1.8 Shots outside box
2.0 47.2% Shooting accuracy
43.3% 29.4% Goals per shot on target
46.2% 1.27 xG for 3·3 of 5
0.96 Defence
7.4 Shots on target faced▾
4.0 1.80 Goals conceded▾
1.40 2.07 xG against▾ 3·3 of 5
1.81 Control
67.4% Pass accuracy
72.8% Discipline
Match Preview & Prediction Vittsjö W face Norrköping W in Sweden - Damallsvenskan on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vittsjö W a 50% chance, the draw 27% and Norrköping W 23%, so Vittsjö W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Vittsjö W and 0.7 for Norrköping W (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vittsjö W are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 1.00 for Norrköping W. This match finished 1-1.
Matchday 15 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 13:00
