Today / Sweden - Damallsvenskan / Malmö FF W vs Hammarby W
Malmö FF W vs Hammarby W Prediction— Sweden - Damallsvenskan
Malmö FF W
PPG 2.17 · HOME
Hammarby W
PPG 2.71 · AWAY
Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →
0 1 2 3 4+ 0 0-013.7% 0-113.8% 0-26.9% 0-32.3% 0-4+0.7% 1 1-013.5% 1-113.5% 1-26.8% 1-32.3% 1-4+0.7% 2 2-06.6% 2-16.6% 2-23.3% 2-31.1% 2-4+0.3% 3 3-02.2% 3-12.2% 3-21.1% 3-30.4% 3-4+0.1% 4+ 4+-00.7% 4+-10.7% 4+-20.3% 4+-30.1% 4+-4+0.0%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW ▣ FT RESULT
Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV
Market Model Implied Odds EV
Home win 32.8% 34.7% 2.88 -5.5%
Draw 28.4% 33.3% 3.00 -8.9%
Away win 38.8% 45.5% 2.20 -14.6%
Over 2.5 44.8% 57.1% 1.75 -21.6%
Over 3.5 27.1% 36.4% 2.75 -15.3%
BTTS 49.1% 61.7% 1.62 -20.5%
Home O1.5 30.6% 42.0% 2.38 -27.2%
Away O1.5 31.0% 47.6% 2.10 -34.9%
League track record ↗
Based on 63 resolved predictions
1X2 Acc 52%
O2.5 71%
BTTS 49%
Score Hit 40%
ROI -18.7%
Bet Hit 50%
Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL
1 – 1 33% CONFIDENCE
✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE xG (home) 1.0 xG (away) 1.0 BTTS prob 49.1%
D 28% / xG 1.0-1.0 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 49%
Top 5 Poisson scorelines
#1 0–1 13.8%
#2 0–0 13.7%
#3 1–1✓ 13.5%
#4 1–0 13.5%
#5 0–2 6.9%
Form & verdict PPG
⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v... HIGH_DRAW_RISK xG gap -0.02, combined xG 1.98 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk
Season statistics shots · possession · passes · corners · cards · xG + Season Statistics average per match · 4 matches · 2026 Malmö FF W ▾ lower is better Hammarby W
Attack
7.0 Shots outside box
3.6 34.1% Shooting accuracy
47.9% 35.7% Goals per shot on target
36.2% 2.44 xG for 3·5 of 4
3.03 Defence
3.8 Shots on target faced▾
2.4 0.25 Goals conceded▾
0.50 0.82 xG against▾ 3·5 of 4
1.04 Control
79.7% Pass accuracy
82.2% Discipline
Match Preview & Prediction Malmö FF W face Hammarby W in Sweden - Damallsvenskan on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Malmö FF W a 33% chance, the draw 28% and Hammarby W 39%, so Hammarby W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Malmö FF W and 1.0 for Hammarby W (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Malmö FF W are averaging 2.17 points per game versus 2.71 for Hammarby W. This match finished 1-1.
Matchday 15 ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 16:00
