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Kristianstad W vs Rosengård W Prediction— Sweden - Damallsvenskan

Matchday 15 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 13:00

Kristianstad W

PPG 1.86 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWDW

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Rosengård W

PPG 0.71 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLDL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 59.6% vs bookmaker-implied 55.9% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-14.4%0-22.3%0-30.8%0-4+0.3%1 1-08.8%1-19.4%1-25.0%1-31.8%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.3%2-19.9%2-25.3%2-31.9%2-4+0.6%3 3-06.6%3-17.0%3-23.7%3-31.3%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-05.7%4+-16.0%4+-23.2%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.9% 52.4% 1.91 +6.8%

Draw 22.2% 30.8% 3.25 -16.7%

Away win 21.9% 30.3% 3.30 -16.6%

Over 2.5 59.7% 59.9% 1.67 -0.3%

Over 3.5 36.6% 38.2% 2.62 -4.1%

BTTS 54.7% 64.5% 1.55 -15.2%

Home O1.5 59.6% 55.9% 1.79 +6.7%

Away O1.5 34.0% 39.8% 2.51 -14.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 63 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -18.7%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.7%

H 56% / xG 2.1-1.1 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 9.4%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.3%

#4 1–0 8.8%

#5 3–1 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kristianstad W2.1

Rosengård W1.1

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

KRISTIANSTAD W · PPG 1.86

ROSENGÅRD W · PPG 0.71

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.05 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Kristianstad W (H) 55.9%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV +6.8%

Draw 22.2%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -16.7%

Rosengård W (A) 21.9%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -16.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kristianstad W face Rosengård W in Sweden - Damallsvenskan on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kristianstad W a 56% chance, the draw 22% and Rosengård W 22%, so Kristianstad W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Kristianstad W and 1.1 for Rosengård W (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kristianstad W are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 0.71 for Rosengård W. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +13.1%. This match finished 1-1.

Kristianstad W vs Rosengård W Prediction— Sweden - Damallsvenskan

Match Preview & Prediction

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