Leagues / SOUTH AFRICA / Premier Soccer League
Premier Soccer League
▼ THIN-EDGE LEAGUE
SHARP MARKET — MODEL EDGE BELOW BREAK-EVEN HERE
// Model accuracy
How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 48 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.
41.7%
1X2
20/48
70.8%
O/U 2.5
34/48
60.4%
BTTS
29/48
64.6%
Exact score
31/48
// Published picks
Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.
17
Settled
47.1%
Hit rate
8/17
1.83
Avg odds
-23.2%
ROI
-4.0u
Picks by market
HOME WIN · N=10 30.0% HIT · AVG 1.76 · -56.7% ROI
AWAY WIN · N=5 60.0% HIT · AVG 1.89 · -8.6% ROI
BTTS · N=2 100.0% HIT · AVG 2.08 · +107.5% ROI
Picks by verdict tier
🎯 Strong bet
6
Bets
33%
Hit
-34.3%
ROI
✓ Solid
2
Bets
50%
Hit
-41.5%
ROI
✓ Fair / Caution
1
Bets
0%
Hit
-100.0%
ROI
⚠ Low confidence
8
Bets
63%
Hit
-0.7%
ROI
Match log
DateMatchPickEVFTResult
May 2026 // 4 PICKS · 1 HIT · 3 MISS
23 MAY Orbit College vs Orlando Pirates Away -23% 0–2 HIT23 MAY Marumo G. vs Stellenbosch — NO PICK 0–0 —23 MAY Magesi vs Richards Bay — NO PICK 1–0 —23 MAY Kaizer Chiefs vs Chippa Utd Home -5% 0–1 MISS23 MAY Golden Arrows vs TS Galaxy — NO PICK 0–0 —23 MAY Durban City vs AmaZulu — NO PICK 0–1 —23 MAY Sekhukhune vs Siwelele — NO PICK 2–2 —16 MAY AmaZulu vs Kaizer Chiefs — NO PICK 0–1 —16 MAY Stellenbosch vs Orbit College — NO PICK 2–0 —16 MAY Siwelele vs Magesi — NO PICK 1–0 —16 MAY Richards Bay vs Sekhukhune — NO PICK 1–1 —16 MAY Polokwane vs Marumo G. — NO PICK 1–1 —16 MAY Orlando Pirates vs Durban City Home -33% 0–0 MISS16 MAY Chippa Utd vs Golden Arrows — NO PICK 0–2 —12 MAY TS Galaxy vs Mamelodi S. Away -22% 3–2 MISS