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Mamelodi Sundowns vs Amazulu Prediction— South-Africa - Premier Soccer League

Matchday 4 ·Wednesday, August 26, 2026, 17:30

Mamelodi Sundowns

PPG 2.35 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWW ·

5 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Amazulu

PPG 1.66 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWL ·

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.3 puts the goal expectation near the line. Model probability 50.5% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.9%0-17.8%0-23.1%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-015.1%1-111.9%1-24.7%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.5%2-19.1%2-23.6%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-05.8%3-14.6%3-21.8%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-12.5%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.7% 78.7% 1.27 -35.6%

Draw 26.1% 20.8% 4.80 +15.2%

Away win 23.2% 7.4% 13.50 +127.9%

Over 2.5 50.5% 57.1% 1.75 -11.6%

Over 3.5 28.7% 35.7% 2.80 -11.8%

BTTS 49.2% 45.5% 2.20 +8.2%

Home O1.5 40.7% 70.4% 1.42 -42.2%

Away O1.5 23.3% 14.3% 7.00 +37.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 64%

ROI -25.4%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-2

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.2%

H 51% / xG 1.5-0.8 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.1%

#2 1–1 11.9%

#3 2–0 11.5%

#4 0–0 9.9%

#5 2–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mamelodi Sundowns1.5

Amazulu0.8

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

MAMELODI SUNDOWNS · PPG 2.35

AMAZULU · PPG 1.66

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.74 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Mamelodi Sundowns (H) 50.7%

ODDS 1.27 · IMPLIED 78.7% EV -35.6%

Draw 26.1%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +15.2%

Amazulu (A) 23.2%

ODDS 13.50 · IMPLIED 7.4% EV +127.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Mamelodi Sundowns face Amazulu in South-Africa - Premier Soccer League on Wednesday, August 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mamelodi Sundowns a 51% chance, the draw 26% and Amazulu 23%, so Mamelodi Sundowns are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Mamelodi Sundowns and 0.8 for Amazulu (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mamelodi Sundowns are averaging 2.35 points per game versus 1.66 for Amazulu. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +103.8%. This match finished 5-2.

Mamelodi Sundowns vs Amazulu Prediction— South-Africa - Premier Soccer League

Match Preview & Prediction

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