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Durban City vs Stellenbosch Prediction— South-Africa - Premier Soccer League

Matchday 5 ·Tuesday, September 1, 2026, 17:30

Durban City

PPG 1.44 · HOME

LAST 5

LDDWD

0 – 0

FULL TIME

Stellenbosch

PPG 1.01 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWLD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.8%0-111.4%0-24.3%0-31.1%0-4+0.2%1 1-016.9%1-113.0%1-25.0%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-09.7%2-17.4%2-22.8%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-03.7%3-12.8%3-21.1%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.0%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.6% 36.2% 2.76 +23.1%

Draw 28.5% 35.5% 2.82 -11.8%

Away win 26.9% 35.2% 2.84 -14.2%

Over 2.5 42.7% 34.5% 2.90 +23.8%

Over 3.5 20.9% 16.7% 6.00 +15.2%

BTTS 48.0% 45.5% 2.20 +5.6%

Home O1.5 31.2% 29.9% 3.35 +4.5%

Away O1.5 21.1% 29.0% 3.45 -16.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 64%

ROI -25.4%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.0%

H 45% / xG 1.1-0.8 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.9%

#2 0–0✓ 14.8%

#3 1–1 13.0%

#4 0–1 11.4%

#5 2–0 9.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Durban City1.1

Stellenbosch0.8

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.7% · O3.5 PROB 20.9%

Form & verdict PPG

DURBAN CITY · PPG 1.44

STELLENBOSCH · PPG 1.01

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.38, combined xG 1.91 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Durban City (H) 44.6%

ODDS 2.76 · IMPLIED 36.2% EV +23.1%

Draw 28.5%

ODDS 2.82 · IMPLIED 35.5% EV -11.8%

Stellenbosch (A) 26.9%

ODDS 2.84 · IMPLIED 35.2% EV -14.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Durban City face Stellenbosch in South-Africa - Premier Soccer League on Tuesday, September 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Durban City a 45% chance, the draw 28% and Stellenbosch 27%, so Durban City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Durban City and 0.8 for Stellenbosch (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Durban City are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 1.01 for Stellenbosch. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +23.8%. This match finished 0-0.

Durban City vs Stellenbosch Prediction— South-Africa - Premier Soccer League

Match Preview & Prediction

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