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Mamelodi Sundowns vs Marumo Gallants Prediction— South-Africa - Premier Soccer League

Matchday 1 ·Wednesday, August 19, 2026, 17:30

Mamelodi Sundowns

PPG 2.21 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWW ·

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Marumo Gallants

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLL ·

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 61.3% vs bookmaker-implied 79.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.3%0-14.7%0-21.3%0-30.3%0-4+0.0%1 1-016.0%1-19.1%1-22.6%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-015.3%2-18.7%2-22.5%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-09.8%3-15.6%3-21.6%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-07.3%4+-14.1%4+-21.2%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 61.3% 79.4% 1.26 -22.8%

Draw 22.6% 18.5% 5.40 +13.2%

Away win 16.1% 9.3% 10.75 +43.9%

Over 2.5 50.1% 61.7% 1.62 -18.8%

Over 3.5 28.2% 39.2% 2.55 -16.9%

BTTS 47.6% 48.8% 2.05 -2.4%

Home O1.5 54.9% 73.5% 1.36 -25.3%

Away O1.5 16.4% 17.4% 5.75 -3.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 64%

ROI -25.4%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob47.6%

H 61% / xG 1.9-0.6 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0✓ 15.3%

#2 1–0 16.0%

#3 1–1 9.1%

#4 0–0 8.3%

#5 3–0 9.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mamelodi Sundowns1.9

Marumo Gallants0.6

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.1% · O3.5 PROB 28.2%

Form & verdict PPG

MAMELODI SUNDOWNS · PPG 2.21

MARUMO GALLANTS · PPG 0.80

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.35 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Mamelodi Sundowns (H) 61.3%

ODDS 1.26 · IMPLIED 79.4% EV -22.8%

Draw 22.6%

ODDS 5.40 · IMPLIED 18.5% EV +13.2%

Marumo Gallants (A) 16.1%

ODDS 10.75 · IMPLIED 9.3% EV +43.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Mamelodi Sundowns face Marumo Gallants in South-Africa - Premier Soccer League on Wednesday, August 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mamelodi Sundowns a 61% chance, the draw 23% and Marumo Gallants 16%, so Mamelodi Sundowns are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Mamelodi Sundowns and 0.6 for Marumo Gallants (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mamelodi Sundowns are averaging 2.21 points per game versus 0.80 for Marumo Gallants. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +23.6%. This match finished 2-0.

Mamelodi Sundowns vs Marumo Gallants Prediction— South-Africa - Premier Soccer League

Match Preview & Prediction

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