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Magesi vs Richards Bay Prediction— South-Africa - Premier Soccer League

Matchday 30 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 13:00

Magesi

PPG 1.07 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLDD

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Richards Bay

PPG 0.79 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDDDL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-017.9%0-115.4%0-26.6%0-31.9%0-4+0.5%1 1-015.4%1-113.2%1-25.7%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-06.7%2-15.7%2-22.4%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-01.9%3-11.6%3-20.7%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.4%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.1% 52.6% 1.90 -31.4%

Draw 33.9% 33.9% 2.95 +0.0%

Away win 29.9% 20.4% 4.90 +27.9%

Over 2.5 35.0% 28.2% 3.55 +24.3%

Over 3.5 9.6% 12.5% 8.00 -13.9%

BTTS 46.2% 35.7% 2.80 +29.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 63%

ROI -1.2%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob46.2%

D 34% / xG 0.9-0.9 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 17.9%

#2 1–1 13.2%

#3 1–0✓ 15.4%

#4 0–1 15.4%

#5 2–0 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Magesi0.9

Richards Bay0.9

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.0% · O3.5 PROB 9.6%

Form & verdict PPG

MAGESI · PPG 1.07

RICHARDS BAY · PPG 0.79

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity | Best EV...

Chance this pick lands

46%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.07), Away POOR (0.79)

Win probability 1X2

Magesi (H) 36.1%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -31.4%

Draw 33.9%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV +0.0%

Richards Bay (A) 29.9%

ODDS 4.90 · IMPLIED 20.4% EV +27.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Magesi face Richards Bay in South-Africa - Premier Soccer League on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Magesi a 36% chance, the draw 34% and Richards Bay 30%, so Magesi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Magesi and 0.9 for Richards Bay (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Magesi are averaging 1.07 points per game versus 0.79 for Richards Bay. The best value bet our model finds is both teams to score, with an expected value of +29.4%. This match finished 1-0.

Magesi vs Richards Bay Prediction— South-Africa - Premier Soccer League

Match Preview & Prediction

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