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Richards Bay vs Amazulu Prediction— South-Africa - Premier Soccer League

Matchday 5 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 17:30

Richards Bay

PPG 1.23 · HOME

LAST 5

LDDD ·

UPCOMING

Amazulu

PPG 1.42 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWL ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.6% vs bookmaker-implied 46.5% — a clear edge.

+15.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.0%0-19.6%0-25.1%0-31.8%0-4+0.6%1 1-012.1%1-112.9%1-26.9%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.1%2-18.6%2-24.6%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-03.6%3-13.9%3-22.1%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.7%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.6% 39.4% 2.54 +13.3%

Draw 26.1% 35.5% 2.82 -15.8%

Away win 29.3% 32.3% 3.10 -5.5%

Over 2.5 50.6% 35.7% 2.80 +41.7%

Over 3.5 30.8% 17.4% 5.75 +77.1%

BTTS 53.6% 46.5% 2.15 +15.2%

Home O1.5 39.2% 32.3% 3.10 +21.5%

Away O1.5 32.5% 27.8% 3.60 +17.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 65%

ROI -25.4%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 22%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob53.6%

H 45% / xG 1.3-1.1 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 1–0 12.1%

#3 2–1 8.6%

#4 0–0 9.0%

#5 2–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Richards Bay1.3

Amazulu1.1

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.6% · O3.5 PROB 30.8%

Form & verdict PPG

RICHARDS BAY · PPG 1.23

AMAZULU · PPG 1.42

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.28, combined xG 2.40 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Richards Bay (H) 44.6%

ODDS 2.54 · IMPLIED 39.4% EV +13.3%

Draw 26.1%

ODDS 2.82 · IMPLIED 35.5% EV -15.8%

Amazulu (A) 29.3%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -5.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Richards Bay face Amazulu in South-Africa - Premier Soccer League on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Richards Bay a 45% chance, the draw 26% and Amazulu 29%, so Richards Bay are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Richards Bay and 1.1 for Amazulu (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Richards Bay are averaging 1.23 points per game versus 1.42 for Amazulu. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +77.1%.

Richards Bay vs Amazulu Prediction— South-Africa - Premier Soccer League

Match Preview & Prediction

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