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Orlando Pirates vs Sekhukhune United Prediction— South-Africa - Premier Soccer League

Matchday 4 ·Tuesday, August 25, 2026, 17:30

Orlando Pirates

PPG 2.13 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWWW

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Sekhukhune United

PPG 1.23 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWL ·

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 58.7% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.5%0-15.9%0-21.5%0-30.3%0-4+0.0%1 1-018.9%1-19.7%1-22.5%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-015.6%2-18.0%2-22.1%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-08.6%3-14.4%3-21.1%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-05.1%4+-12.7%4+-20.7%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 58.7% 73.5% 1.36 -20.2%

Draw 24.9% 23.8% 4.20 +2.8%

Away win 16.3% 9.8% 10.25 +40.2%

Over 2.5 44.8% 47.6% 2.10 -5.9%

Over 3.5 25.4% 26.0% 3.85 -1.3%

BTTS 43.7% 40.8% 2.45 +7.1%

Home O1.5 48.9% 60.6% 1.65 -19.3%

Away O1.5 15.1% 15.4% 6.50 -1.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 64%

ROI -25.4%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 44%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob43.7%

H 59% / xG 1.7-0.5 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 18.9%

#2 2–0✓ 15.6%

#3 0–0 11.5%

#4 1–1 9.7%

#5 3–0 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Orlando Pirates1.7

Sekhukhune United0.5

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.8% · O3.5 PROB 25.4%

Form & verdict PPG

ORLANDO PIRATES · PPG 2.13

SEKHUKHUNE UNITED · PPG 1.23

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.14 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Orlando Pirates (H) 58.7%

ODDS 1.36 · IMPLIED 73.5% EV -20.2%

Draw 24.9%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +2.8%

Sekhukhune United (A) 16.3%

ODDS 10.25 · IMPLIED 9.8% EV +40.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Orlando Pirates face Sekhukhune United in South-Africa - Premier Soccer League on Tuesday, August 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Orlando Pirates a 59% chance, the draw 25% and Sekhukhune United 16%, so Orlando Pirates are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Orlando Pirates and 0.5 for Sekhukhune United (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Orlando Pirates are averaging 2.13 points per game versus 1.23 for Sekhukhune United. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +23.2%. This match finished 2-0.

Orlando Pirates vs Sekhukhune United Prediction— South-Africa - Premier Soccer League

Match Preview & Prediction

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