Super Liga

SLOVAKIA · 26 MATCHES TRACKED · 18 APR 2026 – 16 MAY 2026

▼ THIN-EDGE LEAGUE

SHARP MARKET — MODEL EDGE BELOW BREAK-EVEN HERE

// Model accuracy

How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 26 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.

61.5%

1X2

16/26

61.5%

O/U 2.5

16/26

50.0%

BTTS

13/26

30.8%

Exact score

8/26

// Published picks

Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.

Settled

56.5%

Hit rate

13/23

1.60

Avg odds

-7.2%

ROI

-1.6u

Picks by market

FLAT 1U · BREAK-EVEN AT IMPLIED % MARKED ▎· SMALL SAMPLES — READ WITH CARE

BTTS · N=11 54.5% HIT · AVG 1.61 · -10.6% ROI

OVER 2.5 · N=10 50.0% HIT · AVG 1.58 · -18.3% ROI

HOME WIN · N=2 100.0% HIT · AVG 1.67 · +67.0% ROI

Picks by verdict tier

VERDICTS NORMALIZED INTO CONFIDENCE TIERS · LOW-CONFIDENCE FLAG OVERRIDES

✓ Fair / Caution

Bets

57%

Hit

-2.3%

ROI

⚠ Low confidence

Bets

56%

Hit

-9.3%

ROI

Match log

26 RESOLVED · GROUPED BY MONTH · — MEANS NO PICK PUBLISHED

DateMatchPickEVFTResult

May 2026 // 15 PICKS · 7 HIT · 8 MISS

16 MAY Skalica vs Ruzomberok BTTS -11% 1–0 MISS 16 MAY Zilina vs Podbrezova Over 2.5 -8% 0–2 MISS 16 MAY Trencin vs FC Kosice BTTS -15% 3–0 MISS 16 MAY S. Bratislava vs Z. Michalovce Over 2.5 -13% 0–2 MISS 16 MAY DAC Streda vs Spartak Trnava BTTS -15% 3–0 MISS 10 MAY FC Kosice vs Komarno Over 2.5 +13% 2–1 HIT 10 MAY Spartak Trnava vs Zilina Over 2.5 -5% 1–0 MISS 9 MAY Z. Michalovce vs DAC Streda Over 2.5 +3% 2–1 HIT 9 MAY Podbrezova vs S. Bratislava Over 2.5 -5% 1–2 HIT 9 MAY Ruzomberok vs Trencin BTTS -7% 4–3 HIT 5 MAY Skalica vs FC Kosice BTTS -12% 3–1 HIT 5 MAY Zilina vs Z. Michalovce Over 2.5 -16% 3–2 HIT 3 MAY Trencin vs Komarno BTTS -10% 1–2 HIT 3 MAY Podbrezova vs Spartak Trnava BTTS +3% 0–3 MISS 2 MAY S. Bratislava vs DAC Streda BTTS -4% 1–0 MISS