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Žilina vs Komárno Prediction— Slovakia - Super Liga

Matchday 5 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 17:00

Žilina

PPG 1.39 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWWW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Komárno

PPG 1.12 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDLLD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.6% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a clear edge.

+19.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.3%0-14.1%0-22.5%0-31.0%0-4+0.4%1 1-07.1%1-18.8%1-25.5%1-32.3%1-4+0.9%2 2-07.8%2-19.6%2-26.0%2-32.5%2-4+1.0%3 3-05.6%3-17.0%3-24.3%3-31.8%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-05.1%4+-16.3%4+-23.9%4+-31.6%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.3% 57.1% 1.75 -6.7%

Draw 22.6% 29.4% 3.40 -13.9%

Away win 24.0% 25.0% 4.00 -2.4%

Over 2.5 64.6% 54.1% 1.85 +19.5%

Over 3.5 43.5% 33.3% 3.00 +30.5%

BTTS 61.3% 59.9% 1.67 +2.4%

Home O1.5 65.1% 55.6% 1.80 +17.2%

Away O1.5 37.3% 26.7% 3.75 +39.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 35%

ROI 32.6%

Bet Hit 79%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob61.3%

H 53% / xG 2.2-1.2 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.8%

#2 2–1✓ 9.6%

#3 2–0 7.8%

#4 1–2 5.5%

#5 3–1 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Žilina2.2

Komárno1.2

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.6% · O3.5 PROB 43.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ŽILINA · PPG 1.39

KOMÁRNO · PPG 1.12

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.94 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Žilina (H) 53.3%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -6.7%

Draw 22.6%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -13.9%

Komárno (A) 24.0%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -2.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Žilina face Komárno in Slovakia - Super Liga on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Žilina a 53% chance, the draw 23% and Komárno 24%, so Žilina are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Žilina and 1.2 for Komárno (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Žilina are averaging 1.39 points per game versus 1.12 for Komárno. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +39.9%. This match finished 2-1.

Žilina vs Komárno Prediction— Slovakia - Super Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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