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Podbrezová vs AS Trencin Prediction— Slovakia - Super Liga

Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 18:30

Podbrezová

PPG 1.68 · HOME

UPCOMING

AS Trencin

PPG 1.35 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.5% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-14.9%0-22.9%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-08.3%1-19.8%1-25.8%1-32.3%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.3%2-19.8%2-25.8%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-05.5%3-16.5%3-23.9%3-31.5%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-04.3%4+-15.1%4+-23.0%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.6% 64.5% 1.55 -20.0%

Draw 23.8% 25.0% 4.00 -2.9%

Away win 24.6% 19.6% 5.10 +15.3%

Over 2.5 59.5% 66.7% 1.50 -10.8%

Over 3.5 36.5% 44.4% 2.25 -17.9%

BTTS 54.5% 65.4% 1.53 -16.6%

Home O1.5 54.6% 67.6% 1.48 -19.2%

Away O1.5 35.1% 33.9% 2.95 +3.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 32%

ROI 19.0%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 38%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.5%

H 52% / xG 2.0-1.2 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.8%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 8.3%

#4 1–0 8.3%

#5 3–1 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Podbrezová2.0

AS Trencin1.2

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.5% · O3.5 PROB 36.5%

Form & verdict PPG

PODBREZOVÁ · PPG 1.68

AS TRENCIN · PPG 1.35

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.81 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Podbrezová (H) 51.6%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV -20.0%

Draw 23.8%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -2.9%

AS Trencin (A) 24.6%

ODDS 5.10 · IMPLIED 19.6% EV +15.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Podbrezová face AS Trencin in Slovakia - Super Liga on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Podbrezová a 52% chance, the draw 24% and AS Trencin 25%, so Podbrezová are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Podbrezová and 1.2 for AS Trencin (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Podbrezová are averaging 1.68 points per game versus 1.35 for AS Trencin. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +20.1%.

Podbrezová vs AS Trencin Prediction— Slovakia - Super Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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