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Spartak Trnava vs Žilina Prediction— Slovakia - Super Liga

Matchday 6 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 17:00

Spartak Trnava

PPG 1.99 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWL

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Žilina

PPG 1.87 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.1% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.8%0-14.5%0-22.6%0-31.0%0-4+0.4%1 1-08.0%1-19.4%1-25.5%1-32.2%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.4%2-19.8%2-25.8%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-05.8%3-16.8%3-24.0%3-31.6%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-04.9%4+-15.8%4+-23.4%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.2% 55.6% 1.80 -0.6%

Draw 22.0% 28.6% 3.50 -13.8%

Away win 22.8% 27.0% 3.70 -9.4%

Over 2.5 63.1% 61.7% 1.62 +2.2%

Over 3.5 39.3% 40.0% 2.50 -1.8%

BTTS 60.8% 63.7% 1.57 -4.5%

Home O1.5 59.6% 59.9% 1.67 -0.5%

Away O1.5 33.0% 36.4% 2.75 -9.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 35%

ROI 32.6%

Bet Hit 79%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob60.8%

H 55% / xG 2.1-1.2 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.4%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 8.4%

#4 3–1 6.8%

#5 1–2 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Spartak Trnava2.1

Žilina1.2

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.1% · O3.5 PROB 39.3%

Form & verdict PPG

SPARTAK TRNAVA · PPG 1.99

ŽILINA · PPG 1.87

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.91 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Spartak Trnava (H) 55.2%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -0.6%

Draw 22.0%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -13.8%

Žilina (A) 22.8%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -9.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Spartak Trnava face Žilina in Slovakia - Super Liga on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Spartak Trnava a 55% chance, the draw 22% and Žilina 23%, so Spartak Trnava are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Spartak Trnava and 1.2 for Žilina (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Spartak Trnava are averaging 1.99 points per game versus 1.87 for Žilina. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +12.8%. This match finished 1-3.

Spartak Trnava vs Žilina Prediction— Slovakia - Super Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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