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AS Trencin vs Spartak Trnava Prediction— Slovakia - Super Liga

Matchday 5 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 15:00

AS Trencin

PPG 1.28 · HOME

LAST 5

DDLLW

0 – 4

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Spartak Trnava

PPG 1.78 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWWL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.3%0-111.1%0-28.5%0-34.3%0-4+2.3%1 1-08.0%1-112.2%1-29.3%1-34.7%1-4+2.5%2 2-04.3%2-16.6%2-25.1%2-32.6%2-4+1.4%3 3-01.6%3-12.4%3-21.8%3-30.9%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.8%4+-20.6%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.9% 27.0% 3.70 +4.2%

Draw 25.3% 27.0% 3.70 -3.8%

Away win 45.9% 57.1% 1.75 -19.7%

Over 2.5 53.9% 59.9% 1.67 -10.0%

Over 3.5 31.6% 38.2% 2.62 -17.2%

BTTS 54.7% 61.7% 1.62 -11.4%

Home O1.5 30.6% 36.4% 2.75 -15.8%

Away O1.5 48.5% 59.9% 1.67 -19.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 35%

ROI 32.6%

Bet Hit 79%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-4

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob54.7%

A 46% / xG 1.1-1.5 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 0–1 11.1%

#3 1–2 9.3%

#4 0–2 8.5%

#5 0–0 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

AS Trencin1.1

Spartak Trnava1.5

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

AS TRENCIN · PPG 1.28

SPARTAK TRNAVA · PPG 1.78

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.43 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

AS Trencin (H) 28.9%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV +4.2%

Draw 25.3%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -3.8%

Spartak Trnava (A) 45.9%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -19.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

AS Trencin face Spartak Trnava in Slovakia - Super Liga on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives AS Trencin a 29% chance, the draw 25% and Spartak Trnava 46%, so Spartak Trnava are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for AS Trencin and 1.5 for Spartak Trnava (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, AS Trencin are averaging 1.28 points per game versus 1.78 for Spartak Trnava. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +9.0%. This match finished 0-4.

AS Trencin vs Spartak Trnava Prediction— Slovakia - Super Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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