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Skalica vs FK Košice Prediction— Slovakia - Super Liga

Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 16:00

Skalica

PPG 1.85 · HOME

UPCOMING

FK Košice

PPG 1.08 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.1% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.8%0-13.9%0-22.8%0-31.3%0-4+0.6%1 1-06.0%1-18.5%1-26.0%1-32.8%1-4+1.4%2 2-06.6%2-19.2%2-26.5%2-33.1%2-4+1.5%3 3-04.7%3-16.7%3-24.7%3-32.2%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-04.3%4+-16.0%4+-24.2%4+-32.0%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.9% 33.3% 3.00 +55.7%

Draw 22.3% 28.2% 3.55 -12.5%

Away win 25.8% 48.1% 2.08 -27.8%

Over 2.5 63.1% 58.8% 1.70 +7.3%

Over 3.5 40.1% 36.4% 2.75 +10.3%

BTTS 61.6% 63.7% 1.57 -3.3%

Home O1.5 62.4% 40.8% 2.45 +52.9%

Away O1.5 42.6% 51.3% 1.95 -16.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 32%

ROI 19.0%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 56%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob61.6%

H 52% / xG 2.2-1.4 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.5%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 3–1 6.7%

#4 2–0 6.6%

#5 2–2 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Skalica2.2

FK Košice1.4

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.1% · O3.5 PROB 40.1%

Form & verdict PPG

SKALICA · PPG 1.85

FK KOŠICE · PPG 1.08

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.76 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Skalica (H) 51.9%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +55.7%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -12.5%

FK Košice (A) 25.8%

ODDS 2.08 · IMPLIED 48.1% EV -27.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Skalica face FK Košice in Slovakia - Super Liga on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Skalica a 52% chance, the draw 22% and FK Košice 26%, so Skalica are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Skalica and 1.4 for FK Košice (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Skalica are averaging 1.85 points per game versus 1.08 for FK Košice. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +78.5%.

Skalica vs FK Košice Prediction— Slovakia - Super Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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