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Spartak Trnava vs Zemplín Michalovce Prediction— Slovakia - Super Liga

Matchday 4 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 15:00

Spartak Trnava

PPG 1.85 · HOME

UPCOMING

Zemplín Michalovce

PPG 1.15 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 68.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.8%0-15.7%0-22.1%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-014.1%1-110.4%1-23.8%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.8%2-19.5%2-23.5%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-07.8%3-15.7%3-22.1%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-05.3%4+-13.9%4+-21.4%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.4% 68.5% 1.46 -19.1%

Draw 24.3% 24.4% 4.10 -0.2%

Away win 20.3% 15.6% 6.40 +17.9%

Over 2.5 49.9% 56.5% 1.77 -11.7%

Over 3.5 28.7% 33.9% 2.95 -9.2%

BTTS 47.7% 54.1% 1.85 -11.8%

Home O1.5 50.2% 63.7% 1.57 -21.2%

Away O1.5 17.2% 23.1% 4.33 -15.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 32%

ROI 19.0%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 31%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob47.7%

H 55% / xG 1.8-0.7 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.8%

#2 1–0 14.1%

#3 1–1 10.4%

#4 2–1 9.5%

#5 0–0 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Spartak Trnava1.8

Zemplín Michalovce0.7

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SPARTAK TRNAVA · PPG 1.85

ZEMPLÍN MICHALOVCE · PPG 1.15

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.08 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Spartak Trnava (H) 55.4%

ODDS 1.46 · IMPLIED 68.5% EV -19.1%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -0.2%

Zemplín Michalovce (A) 20.3%

ODDS 6.40 · IMPLIED 15.6% EV +17.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Spartak Trnava face Zemplín Michalovce in Slovakia - Super Liga on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Spartak Trnava a 55% chance, the draw 24% and Zemplín Michalovce 20%, so Spartak Trnava are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Spartak Trnava and 0.7 for Zemplín Michalovce (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Spartak Trnava are averaging 1.85 points per game versus 1.15 for Zemplín Michalovce. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +11.3%.

Spartak Trnava vs Zemplín Michalovce Prediction— Slovakia - Super Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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