Today / Poland - I Liga / Polonia Bytom vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

Polonia Bytom vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Matchday 5 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 13:30

Polonia Bytom

PPG 1.68 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLDD

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

PPG 1.70 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDDD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.8% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-17.3%0-25.9%0-33.2%0-4+1.9%1 1-06.7%1-110.8%1-28.8%1-34.7%1-4+2.7%2 2-04.9%2-18.0%2-26.5%2-33.5%2-4+2.0%3 3-02.4%3-13.9%3-23.2%3-31.7%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-12.0%4+-21.6%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.5% 52.4% 1.91 -34.1%

Draw 23.5% 27.8% 3.60 -9.2%

Away win 42.0% 30.3% 3.30 +38.6%

Over 2.5 59.8% 61.7% 1.62 -3.1%

Over 3.5 36.7% 40.0% 2.50 -8.3%

BTTS 61.3% 66.7% 1.50 -8.1%

Home O1.5 40.0% 57.8% 1.73 -30.8%

Away O1.5 48.5% 41.7% 2.40 +16.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 66 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -10.9%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob61.3%

A 42% / xG 1.5-1.6 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 1–2 8.8%

#3 2–1 8.0%

#4 0–2 5.9%

#5 0–1 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Polonia Bytom1.5

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki1.6

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.8% · O3.5 PROB 36.7%

Form & verdict PPG

POLONIA BYTOM · PPG 1.68

POGOŃ GROD. MAZOWIECKI · PPG 1.70

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.14 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Polonia Bytom (H) 34.5%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -34.1%

Draw 23.5%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -9.2%

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki (A) 42.0%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +38.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Polonia Bytom face Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki in Poland - I Liga on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Polonia Bytom a 35% chance, the draw 24% and Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 42%, so Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Polonia Bytom and 1.6 for Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Polonia Bytom are averaging 1.68 points per game versus 1.70 for Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +57.5%. This match finished 2-2.

Polonia Bytom vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

More Poland - I Liga Predictions