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Miedz Legnica vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 13:30

Miedz Legnica

PPG 1.62 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

PPG 1.63 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.4% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.2%0-110.1%0-26.2%0-32.6%0-4+1.0%1 1-010.4%1-112.8%1-27.9%1-33.2%1-4+1.3%2 2-06.6%2-18.1%2-25.0%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-02.8%3-13.4%3-22.1%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.4%4+-20.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.8% 50.0% 2.00 -26.4%

Draw 28.1% 29.4% 3.40 -2.7%

Away win 35.1% 33.3% 3.00 +5.3%

Over 2.5 50.3% 60.6% 1.65 -17.0%

Over 3.5 28.8% 40.0% 2.50 -16.8%

BTTS 52.4% 63.7% 1.57 -17.7%

Home O1.5 36.5% 54.6% 1.83 -33.2%

Away O1.5 35.7% 40.0% 2.50 -10.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -10.1%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob52.4%

D 28% / xG 1.3-1.2 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–0 8.2%

#3 1–0 10.4%

#4 0–1✓ 10.1%

#5 2–1 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Miedz Legnica1.3

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki1.2

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.3% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

MIEDZ LEGNICA · PPG 1.62

POGOŃ GROD. MAZOWIECKI · PPG 1.63

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.04, combined xG 2.50 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Miedz Legnica (H) 36.8%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -26.4%

Draw 28.1%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -2.7%

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki (A) 35.1%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +5.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Miedz Legnica face Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki in Poland - I Liga on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Miedz Legnica a 37% chance, the draw 28% and Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 35%, so Miedz Legnica are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Miedz Legnica and 1.2 for Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Miedz Legnica are averaging 1.62 points per game versus 1.63 for Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki. This match finished 0-1.

Miedz Legnica vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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