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ŁKS Łódź vs Chrobry Głogów Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Matchday 3 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 12:30

ŁKS Łódź

PPG 2.09 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Chrobry Głogów

PPG 1.82 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.2%0-17.7%0-25.7%0-32.8%0-4+1.4%1 1-07.7%1-111.4%1-28.4%1-34.1%1-4+2.1%2 2-05.7%2-18.4%2-26.2%2-33.0%2-4+1.5%3 3-02.8%3-14.1%3-23.0%3-31.5%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-12.1%4+-21.6%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.4% 58.8% 1.70 -36.4%

Draw 27.0% 29.4% 3.40 -4.9%

Away win 35.6% 23.1% 4.33 +54.1%

Over 2.5 53.5% 51.3% 1.95 +4.3%

Over 3.5 32.3% 29.4% 3.40 +9.8%

BTTS 54.6% 54.1% 1.85 +1.0%

Home O1.5 45.4% 55.6% 1.80 -18.3%

Away O1.5 44.5% 25.0% 4.00 +78.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -10.1%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob54.6%

H 37% / xG 1.5-1.5 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 2–1 8.4%

#3 1–2✓ 8.4%

#4 0–0 5.2%

#5 2–2 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

ŁKS Łódź1.5

Chrobry Głogów1.5

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 32.3%

Form & verdict PPG

ŁKS ŁÓDŹ · PPG 2.09

CHROBRY GŁOGÓW · PPG 1.82

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.00 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

ŁKS Łódź (H) 37.4%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -36.4%

Draw 27.0%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -4.9%

Chrobry Głogów (A) 35.6%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +54.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

ŁKS Łódź face Chrobry Głogów in Poland - I Liga on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives ŁKS Łódź a 37% chance, the draw 27% and Chrobry Głogów 36%, so ŁKS Łódź are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for ŁKS Łódź and 1.5 for Chrobry Głogów (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, ŁKS Łódź are averaging 2.09 points per game versus 1.82 for Chrobry Głogów. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +78.0%. This match finished 1-2.

ŁKS Łódź vs Chrobry Głogów Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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