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Stal Mielec vs Stal Rzeszów Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 13:30

Stal Mielec

PPG 1.19 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Stal Rzeszów

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 78.3% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4% — a clear edge.

+12.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.7%0-11.0%0-20.7%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-02.5%1-13.5%1-22.4%1-31.1%1-4+0.5%2 2-04.5%2-16.2%2-24.3%2-32.0%2-4+0.9%3 3-05.4%3-17.4%3-25.1%3-32.3%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-012.1%4+-116.7%4+-211.5%4+-35.3%4+-4+2.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.7% 62.5% 1.60 +3.5%

Draw 16.1% 25.6% 3.90 -22.3%

Away win 19.2% 22.7% 4.40 -9.3%

Over 2.5 73.0% 67.6% 1.48 +8.0%

Over 3.5 52.7% 47.6% 2.10 +10.7%

BTTS 64.3% 69.4% 1.44 -7.4%

Home O1.5 78.3% 69.4% 1.44 +12.8%

Away O1.5 43.7% 36.4% 2.75 +20.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -10.1%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 77%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)3.6 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob64.3%

H 65% / xG 3.6-1.4 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 7.4%

#2 4–1 6.6%

#3 2–1 6.2%

#4 3–0 5.4%

#5 3–2 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Stal Mielec3.6

Stal Rzeszów1.4

COMBINED 5.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 73.0% · O3.5 PROB 52.7%

Form & verdict PPG

STAL MIELEC · PPG 1.19

STAL RZESZÓW · PPG 1.00

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

xG gap +2.21 for Home, but form 1.19 vs 1.00 doesn't confirm

Win probability 1X2

Stal Mielec (H) 64.7%

ODDS 1.60 · IMPLIED 62.5% EV +3.5%

Draw 16.1%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -22.3%

Stal Rzeszów (A) 19.2%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -9.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Stal Mielec face Stal Rzeszów in Poland - I Liga on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Stal Mielec a 65% chance, the draw 16% and Stal Rzeszów 19%, so Stal Mielec are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.6 for Stal Mielec and 1.4 for Stal Rzeszów (5.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Stal Mielec are averaging 1.19 points per game versus 1.00 for Stal Rzeszów. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +20.2%. This match finished 1-1.

Stal Mielec vs Stal Rzeszów Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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