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ŁKS Łódź vs Stal Mielec Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Matchday 5 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 17:00

ŁKS Łódź

PPG 1.87 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWWD

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Stal Mielec

PPG 1.48 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDWLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 65.0% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.2%0-14.7%0-23.6%0-31.8%0-4+0.9%1 1-06.2%1-19.3%1-26.9%1-33.5%1-4+1.8%2 2-06.0%2-19.1%2-26.8%2-33.4%2-4+1.8%3 3-03.9%3-15.9%3-24.4%3-32.2%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-14.5%4+-23.4%4+-31.7%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.8% 57.1% 1.75 -16.4%

Draw 22.7% 26.3% 3.80 -8.2%

Away win 29.6% 27.8% 3.60 +3.9%

Over 2.5 65.0% 61.7% 1.62 +5.3%

Over 3.5 43.5% 40.0% 2.50 +8.8%

BTTS 63.2% 62.5% 1.60 +1.1%

Home O1.5 54.9% 59.9% 1.67 -8.3%

Away O1.5 43.0% 36.4% 2.75 +18.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 66 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -10.9%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob63.2%

H 48% / xG 2.0-1.5 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.3%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 1–2 6.9%

#4 2–2 6.8%

#5 2–0 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

ŁKS Łódź2.0

Stal Mielec1.5

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.0% · O3.5 PROB 43.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ŁKS ŁÓDŹ · PPG 1.87

STAL MIELEC · PPG 1.48

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.45 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

ŁKS Łódź (H) 47.8%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -16.4%

Draw 22.7%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -8.2%

Stal Mielec (A) 29.6%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV +3.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

ŁKS Łódź face Stal Mielec in Poland - I Liga on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives ŁKS Łódź a 48% chance, the draw 23% and Stal Mielec 30%, so ŁKS Łódź are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for ŁKS Łódź and 1.5 for Stal Mielec (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, ŁKS Łódź are averaging 1.87 points per game versus 1.48 for Stal Mielec. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +28.9%. This match finished 4-0.

ŁKS Łódź vs Stal Mielec Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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