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Stal Rzeszów vs Ruch Chorzów Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Matchday 5 ·Monday, August 24, 2026, 17:00

Stal Rzeszów

PPG 1.14 · HOME

LAST 5

LDDLW

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Ruch Chorzów

PPG 1.12 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWWL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.0% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.4%0-18.4%0-26.5%0-33.3%0-4+1.8%1 1-07.4%1-111.5%1-28.9%1-34.6%1-4+2.5%2 2-05.1%2-17.9%2-26.1%2-33.1%2-4+1.7%3 3-02.3%3-13.6%3-22.8%3-31.4%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.7%4+-21.3%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.9% 27.4% 3.65 +27.4%

Draw 23.7% 27.4% 3.65 -8.1%

Away win 41.5% 55.6% 1.80 -25.3%

Over 2.5 53.5% 61.7% 1.62 -13.3%

Over 3.5 32.1% 40.0% 2.50 -19.8%

BTTS 55.0% 65.4% 1.53 -15.8%

Home O1.5 38.0% 39.2% 2.55 -3.1%

Away O1.5 47.9% 59.9% 1.67 -20.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 66 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -10.9%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob55.0%

A 42% / xG 1.4-1.5 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 1–2 8.9%

#3 2–1 7.9%

#4 0–1✓ 8.4%

#5 0–2 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Stal Rzeszów1.4

Ruch Chorzów1.5

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 32.1%

Form & verdict PPG

STAL RZESZÓW · PPG 1.14

RUCH CHORZÓW · PPG 1.12

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.17 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Stal Rzeszów (H) 34.9%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV +27.4%

Draw 23.7%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -8.1%

Ruch Chorzów (A) 41.5%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -25.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Stal Rzeszów face Ruch Chorzów in Poland - I Liga on Monday, August 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Stal Rzeszów a 35% chance, the draw 24% and Ruch Chorzów 42%, so Ruch Chorzów are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Stal Rzeszów and 1.5 for Ruch Chorzów (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Stal Rzeszów are averaging 1.14 points per game versus 1.12 for Ruch Chorzów. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +19.9%. This match finished 0-1.

Stal Rzeszów vs Ruch Chorzów Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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