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Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Stal Rzeszów Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Matchday 4 ·Friday, August 14, 2026, 16:00

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

PPG 1.83 · HOME

UPCOMING

Stal Rzeszów

PPG 1.09 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 64.1% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1% — a clear edge.

+12.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.8%0-13.3%0-21.4%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-09.1%1-17.9%1-23.4%1-31.0%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.0%2-19.5%2-24.1%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.9%3-17.6%3-23.3%3-30.9%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-09.5%4+-18.2%4+-23.5%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.1% 57.1% 1.75 +12.2%

Draw 21.2% 27.8% 3.60 -14.2%

Away win 14.7% 26.7% 3.75 -26.9%

Over 2.5 59.5% 65.4% 1.53 -9.0%

Over 3.5 36.5% 45.5% 2.20 -19.7%

BTTS 53.1% 69.4% 1.44 -23.5%

Home O1.5 63.0% 61.7% 1.62 +2.1%

Away O1.5 21.9% 40.0% 2.50 -27.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -10.1%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob53.1%

H 64% / xG 2.4-0.9 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.0%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 1–1 7.9%

#4 3–0 8.9%

#5 1–0 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki2.4

Stal Rzeszów0.9

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.5% · O3.5 PROB 36.5%

Form & verdict PPG

POGOŃ GROD. MAZOWIECKI · PPG 1.83

STAL RZESZÓW · PPG 1.09

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.55 for Home, form 1.83 vs 1.09 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki (H) 64.1%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV +12.2%

Draw 21.2%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -14.2%

Stal Rzeszów (A) 14.7%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -26.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki face Stal Rzeszów in Poland - I Liga on Friday, August 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki a 64% chance, the draw 21% and Stal Rzeszów 15%, so Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki and 0.9 for Stal Rzeszów (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki are averaging 1.83 points per game versus 1.09 for Stal Rzeszów. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +11.6%.

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Stal Rzeszów Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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