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Nieciecza vs Lechia Gdansk Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Matchday 7 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 19:00

Nieciecza

PPG 1.31 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLLD

UPCOMING

Lechia Gdansk

PPG 1.44 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDLWW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 60.5% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.2%0-16.7%0-24.3%0-31.8%0-4+0.8%1 1-08.6%1-111.1%1-27.2%1-33.1%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.2%2-19.3%2-26.0%2-32.6%2-4+1.1%3 3-04.0%3-15.2%3-23.4%3-31.4%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-13.2%4+-22.0%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.3% 56.5% 1.77 -23.4%

Draw 23.3% 26.7% 3.75 -7.6%

Away win 33.5% 27.0% 3.70 +23.9%

Over 2.5 59.6% 64.5% 1.55 -7.6%

Over 3.5 36.4% 42.0% 2.38 -13.4%

BTTS 60.5% 66.7% 1.50 -9.3%

Home O1.5 49.6% 61.7% 1.62 -19.7%

Away O1.5 38.5% 40.0% 2.50 -3.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 66 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -10.9%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob60.5%

H 43% / xG 1.7-1.3 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–2 7.2%

#4 2–0 7.2%

#5 1–0 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nieciecza1.7

Lechia Gdansk1.3

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.6% · O3.5 PROB 36.4%

Form & verdict PPG

NIECIECZA · PPG 1.31

LECHIA GDANSK · PPG 1.44

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.38 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Nieciecza (H) 43.3%

ODDS 1.77 · IMPLIED 56.5% EV -23.4%

Draw 23.3%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -7.6%

Lechia Gdansk (A) 33.5%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV +23.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nieciecza face Lechia Gdansk in Poland - I Liga on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nieciecza a 43% chance, the draw 23% and Lechia Gdansk 34%, so Nieciecza are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Nieciecza and 1.3 for Lechia Gdansk (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nieciecza are averaging 1.31 points per game versus 1.44 for Lechia Gdansk. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +16.7%.

Nieciecza vs Lechia Gdansk Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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