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Stal Mielec vs Polonia Bytom Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Matchday 4 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 15:00

Stal Mielec

PPG 1.18 · HOME

UPCOMING

Polonia Bytom

PPG 1.08 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.7% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.8%0-13.3%0-22.9%0-31.7%0-4+1.1%1 1-04.1%1-17.2%1-26.4%1-33.8%1-4+2.5%2 2-04.5%2-18.0%2-27.2%2-34.2%2-4+2.8%3 3-03.3%3-15.9%3-25.3%3-33.1%3-4+2.1%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-15.5%4+-24.9%4+-32.9%4+-4+1.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.0% 50.0% 2.00 -4.0%

Draw 22.6% 27.8% 3.60 -11.2%

Away win 29.4% 33.3% 3.00 -7.1%

Over 2.5 64.7% 67.6% 1.48 -4.2%

Over 3.5 43.0% 47.6% 2.10 -9.7%

BTTS 63.3% 71.4% 1.40 -11.4%

Home O1.5 63.0% 57.8% 1.73 +9.0%

Away O1.5 47.7% 45.5% 2.20 +4.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -14.0%

Bet Hit 48%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 64%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob63.3%

H 48% / xG 2.2-1.8 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.2%

#2 2–1 8.0%

#3 2–2 7.2%

#4 1–2 6.4%

#5 3–1 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Stal Mielec2.2

Polonia Bytom1.8

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.7% · O3.5 PROB 43.0%

Form & verdict PPG

STAL MIELEC · PPG 1.18

POLONIA BYTOM · PPG 1.08

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.44 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Stal Mielec (H) 48.0%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -4.0%

Draw 22.6%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -11.2%

Polonia Bytom (A) 29.4%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -7.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Stal Mielec face Polonia Bytom in Poland - I Liga on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Stal Mielec a 48% chance, the draw 23% and Polonia Bytom 29%, so Stal Mielec are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Stal Mielec and 1.8 for Polonia Bytom (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Stal Mielec are averaging 1.18 points per game versus 1.08 for Polonia Bytom. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +12.2%.

Stal Mielec vs Polonia Bytom Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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