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Musa vs EPS Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group B

Group B ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 13:00

Musa

PPG 0.83 · HOME

UPCOMING

EPS

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

Model probability 67.0% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.2%0-15.3%0-26.2%0-34.9%0-4+5.0%1 1-03.2%1-17.6%1-29.0%1-37.0%1-4+7.3%2 2-02.3%2-15.5%2-26.5%2-35.1%2-4+5.2%3 3-01.1%3-12.6%3-23.1%3-32.5%3-4+2.5%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-11.3%4+-21.5%4+-31.2%4+-4+1.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.3% 25.6% 3.90 +8.6%

Draw 21.4% 23.8% 4.20 -6.1%

Away win 49.3% 62.5% 1.60 -21.1%

Over 2.5 67.0% 76.9% 1.30 -12.9%

Over 3.5 44.5% 57.8% 1.73 -23.0%

BTTS 64.5% 73.5% 1.36 -12.3%

Home O1.5 46.3% 45.5% 2.20 +1.9%

Away O1.5 67.0% 73.5% 1.36 -8.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 26 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 65%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 73%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -24.7%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 63%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)2.4 BTTS prob64.5%

A 49% / xG 1.4-2.4 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 9.0%

#2 1–1 7.6%

#3 1–3 7.0%

#4 2–2 6.5%

#5 0–2 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Musa1.4

EPS2.4

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.0% · O3.5 PROB 44.5%

Form & verdict PPG

MUSA · PPG 0.83

EPS · PPG 1.00

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.91 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Musa (H) 29.3%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +8.6%

Draw 21.4%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -6.1%

EPS (A) 49.3%

ODDS 1.60 · IMPLIED 62.5% EV -21.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Musa face EPS in Finland - Kakkonen Group B on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Musa a 29% chance, the draw 21% and EPS 49%, so EPS are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Musa and 2.4 for EPS (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 65% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Musa are averaging 0.83 points per game versus 1.00 for EPS. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +17.2%.

Musa vs EPS Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group B

Match Preview & Prediction

More Finland - Kakkonen Group B Predictions