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Honka vs GrIFK Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group B

Group B ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 13:00

Honka

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

GrIFK

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

xG gap +2.53 for Home, form 2.00 vs 1.00 - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.7%0-11.3%0-20.5%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-05.6%1-14.3%1-21.7%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-09.3%2-17.2%2-22.8%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-010.2%3-17.9%3-23.1%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-019.4%4+-115.0%4+-25.8%4+-31.5%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 73.3% 91.7% 1.09 -20.1%

Draw 17.3% 10.0% 10.00 +43.8%

Away win 9.5% 5.9% 17.00 +36.9%

Over 2.5 72.6% 85.5% 1.17 -15.1%

Over 3.5 49.7% 69.4% 1.44 -28.4%

BTTS 55.4% 55.6% 1.80 -0.3%

Home O1.5 77.3% — — —

Away O1.5 20.1% 18.3% 5.45 +5.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 26 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 65%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 73%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -24.7%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 63%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.3 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob55.4%

H 73% / xG 3.3-0.8 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 10.2%

#2 2–0 9.3%

#3 4–0 8.4%

#4 3–1 7.9%

#5 2–1 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Honka3.3

GrIFK0.8

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.6% · O3.5 PROB 49.7%

Form & verdict PPG

HONKA · PPG 2.00

GRIFK · PPG 1.00

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.53 for Home, form 2.00 vs 1.00 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Honka (H) 73.3%

ODDS 1.09 · IMPLIED 91.7% EV -20.1%

Draw 17.3%

ODDS 10.00 · IMPLIED 10.0% EV +43.8%

GrIFK (A) 9.5%

ODDS 17.00 · IMPLIED 5.9% EV +36.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Honka face GrIFK in Finland - Kakkonen Group B on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Honka a 73% chance, the draw 17% and GrIFK 10%, so Honka are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.3 for Honka and 0.8 for GrIFK (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Honka are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.00 for GrIFK. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +40.7%.

Honka vs GrIFK Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group B

Match Preview & Prediction

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