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EBK vs P-Iirot Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group B

Group B ·Saturday, July 18, 2026, 14:00

EBK

PPG 1.17 · HOME

UPCOMING

P-Iirot

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-16.8%0-25.8%0-33.3%0-4+2.0%1 1-06.1%1-110.3%1-28.8%1-34.9%1-4+3.1%2 2-04.6%2-17.9%2-26.7%2-33.8%2-4+2.3%3 3-02.4%3-14.0%3-23.4%3-31.9%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-12.1%4+-21.8%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.2% 40.8% 2.45 -11.3%

Draw 22.5% 27.8% 3.60 -11.4%

Away win 41.2% 44.4% 2.25 -7.3%

Over 2.5 63.9% 75.2% 1.33 -15.0%

Over 3.5 41.1% 55.6% 1.80 -26.0%

BTTS 63.3% 76.9% 1.30 -17.7%

Home O1.5 46.0% 57.8% 1.73 -20.4%

Away O1.5 50.2% 61.7% 1.62 -18.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 68%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 27%

ROI -26.3%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 44%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob63.3%

A 41% / xG 1.5-1.7 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.3%

#2 1–2 8.8%

#3 2–1 7.9%

#4 2–2 6.7%

#5 0–2 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

EBK1.5

P-Iirot1.7

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 41.1%

Form & verdict PPG

EBK · PPG 1.17

P-IIROT · PPG 0.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.17) vs P(Home)=36.2%

Win probability 1X2

EBK (H) 36.2%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -11.3%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -11.4%

P-Iirot (A) 41.2%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -7.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

EBK face P-Iirot in Finland - Kakkonen Group B on Saturday, July 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives EBK a 36% chance, the draw 23% and P-Iirot 41%, so P-Iirot are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for EBK and 1.7 for P-Iirot (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, EBK are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 0.33 for P-Iirot.

EBK vs P-Iirot Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group B

Match Preview & Prediction

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