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HJS vs MuSa Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group B

Group B · Matchday 13 ·Saturday, July 18, 2026, 14:00

HJS

PPG 1.40 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLLL

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

MuSa

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLLW

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 69.0% vs bookmaker-implied 87.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.4%0-12.3%0-21.1%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-06.7%1-16.4%1-23.0%1-31.0%1-4+0.3%2 2-09.3%2-18.8%2-24.2%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-08.6%3-18.2%3-23.9%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-011.7%4+-111.1%4+-25.3%4+-31.7%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.7% 83.3% 1.20 -22.4%

Draw 16.8% 16.7% 6.00 +0.5%

Away win 18.4% 11.1% 9.00 +39.4%

Over 2.5 67.1% 82.0% 1.22 -18.1%

Over 3.5 44.5% 65.4% 1.53 -31.9%

BTTS 62.1% 66.7% 1.50 -6.9%

Home O1.5 69.0% 87.0% 1.15 -20.6%

Away O1.5 29.7% 28.7% 3.48 +2.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 69%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 71%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)2.8 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob62.1%

H 65% / xG 2.8-1.0 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 9.3%

#2 2–1✓ 8.8%

#3 3–0 8.6%

#4 3–1 8.2%

#5 1–1 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

HJS2.8

MuSa1.0

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.1% · O3.5 PROB 44.5%

Form & verdict PPG

HJS · PPG 1.40

MUSA · PPG 0.67

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.40) > Away POOR (0.67)

Win probability 1X2

HJS (H) 64.7%

ODDS 1.20 · IMPLIED 83.3% EV -22.4%

Draw 16.8%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +0.5%

MuSa (A) 18.4%

ODDS 9.00 · IMPLIED 11.1% EV +39.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

HJS face MuSa in Finland - Kakkonen Group B on Saturday, July 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives HJS a 65% chance, the draw 17% and MuSa 18%, so HJS are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for HJS and 1.0 for MuSa (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, HJS are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 0.67 for MuSa. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +39.4%. This match finished 2-1.

HJS vs MuSa Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group B

Match Preview & Prediction

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