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HJS vs MuSa Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group B

Group B ·Saturday, July 18, 2026, 14:00

HJS

PPG 1.40 · HOME

UPCOMING

MuSa

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.1% vs bookmaker-implied 82.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.4%0-12.3%0-21.1%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-06.7%1-16.4%1-23.0%1-31.0%1-4+0.3%2 2-09.3%2-18.8%2-24.2%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-08.6%3-18.2%3-23.9%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-011.7%4+-111.1%4+-25.3%4+-31.7%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.7% 83.3% 1.20 -22.4%

Draw 16.8% 16.7% 6.00 +0.5%

Away win 18.4% 11.1% 9.00 +39.4%

Over 2.5 67.1% 82.0% 1.22 -18.1%

Over 3.5 44.5% 65.4% 1.53 -31.9%

BTTS 62.1% 66.7% 1.50 -6.9%

Home O1.5 69.0% 87.0% 1.15 -20.6%

Away O1.5 29.7% 28.7% 3.48 +2.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 68%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 27%

ROI -26.3%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 71%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.8 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob62.1%

H 65% / xG 2.8-1.0 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 9.3%

#2 2–1 8.8%

#3 3–0 8.6%

#4 3–1 8.2%

#5 1–1 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

HJS2.8

MuSa1.0

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.1% · O3.5 PROB 44.5%

Form & verdict PPG

HJS · PPG 1.40

MUSA · PPG 0.67

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.40) > Away POOR (0.67)

Win probability 1X2

HJS (H) 64.7%

ODDS 1.20 · IMPLIED 83.3% EV -22.4%

Draw 16.8%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +0.5%

MuSa (A) 18.4%

ODDS 9.00 · IMPLIED 11.1% EV +39.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

HJS face MuSa in Finland - Kakkonen Group B on Saturday, July 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives HJS a 65% chance, the draw 17% and MuSa 18%, so HJS are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for HJS and 1.0 for MuSa (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, HJS are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 0.67 for MuSa. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +39.4%.

HJS vs MuSa Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group B

Match Preview & Prediction

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