Today / Finland - Kakkonen Group B / P-Iirot vs Ilves II

P-Iirot vs Ilves II Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group B

Group B · Matchday 14 ·Friday, July 24, 2026, 16:00

P-Iirot logo
P-Iirot
PPG 2.50 · HOME
LAST 5
WLLDW
2 – 1
FULL TIME
✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5
Ilves II logo
Ilves II
PPG 1.67 · AWAY
LAST 5
LWLLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 74% chance

Combined xG of 3.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.0% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.0%0-13.7%0-23.4%0-32.1%0-4+1.5%1 1-04.1%1-17.6%1-27.1%1-34.4%1-4+3.1%2 2-04.2%2-17.9%2-27.3%2-34.5%2-4+3.2%3 3-02.9%3-15.4%3-25.0%3-33.1%3-4+2.2%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-14.5%4+-24.1%4+-32.6%4+-4+1.8%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV
Home win 44.7% 37.0% 2.70 +20.7%
Draw 21.6% 27.8% 3.60 -13.3%
Away win 33.7% 48.8% 2.05 -30.9%
Over 2.5 67.0% 76.9% 1.30 -12.9%
Over 3.5 49.6% 57.8% 1.73 -14.2%
BTTS 69.5% 76.9% 1.30 -9.7%
Home O1.5 61.7% 55.6% 1.80 +11.1%
Away O1.5 49.0% 66.7% 1.50 -26.5%

League track record

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 66%
O2.5 64%
BTTS 64%
Score Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 62%CONFIDENCE
✘ MISS — FT 2-1
xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob69.5%

H 45% / xG 2.1-1.9 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.6%
#2 2–1 7.9%
#3 2–2 7.3%
#4 1–2 7.1%
#5 3–1 5.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

P-Iirot2.1
Ilves II1.9

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.0% · O3.5 PROB 49.6%

Form & verdict PPG

P-IIROT · PPG 2.50

ILVES II · PPG 1.67

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value
Chance this pick lands
74%
BALANCED

xG gap +0.21 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

P-Iirot (H) 44.7%
ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV +20.7%
Draw 21.6%
ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -13.3%
Ilves II (A) 33.7%
ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -30.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

P-Iirot face Ilves II in Finland - Kakkonen Group B on Friday, July 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives P-Iirot a 45% chance, the draw 22% and Ilves II 34%, so P-Iirot are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for P-Iirot and 1.9 for Ilves II (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, P-Iirot are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 1.67 for Ilves II. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +14.8%. This match finished 2-1.

PredictVantage

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