Today / Finland - Kakkonen Group B / P-Iirot vs Ilves II
P-Iirot vs Ilves II Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group B
Group B · Matchday 14 ·Friday, July 24, 2026, 16:00
// Model verdict
Over 2.5 74% chance
Combined xG of 3.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.0% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.
Poisson scoreline matrix
Markets vs the line
Correct score prediction
H 45% / xG 2.1-1.9 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 70%
Top 5 Poisson scorelines
Expected goals
COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.0% · O3.5 PROB 49.6%
Form & verdict
P-IIROT · PPG 2.50
ILVES II · PPG 1.67
xG gap +0.21 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk
Win probability
Match Preview & Prediction
P-Iirot face Ilves II in Finland - Kakkonen Group B on Friday, July 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives P-Iirot a 45% chance, the draw 22% and Ilves II 34%, so P-Iirot are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for P-Iirot and 1.9 for Ilves II (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, P-Iirot are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 1.67 for Ilves II. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +14.8%. This match finished 2-1.