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P-Iirot vs Ilves II Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group B

Group B ·Friday, July 24, 2026, 16:00

P-Iirot

PPG 2.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Ilves II

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 70.8% vs bookmaker-implied 84.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.8%0-13.4%0-23.2%0-32.1%0-4+1.5%1 1-03.8%1-17.2%1-26.9%1-34.4%1-4+3.2%2 2-04.0%2-17.6%2-27.3%2-34.6%2-4+3.4%3 3-02.8%3-15.4%3-25.2%3-33.3%3-4+2.4%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-14.7%4+-24.5%4+-32.9%4+-4+2.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.7% 39.2% 2.55 +14.0%

Draw 21.6% 25.3% 3.95 -8.8%

Away win 33.7% 48.1% 2.08 -29.9%

Over 2.5 70.8% 84.7% 1.18 -16.5%

Over 3.5 49.7% 65.8% 1.52 -24.5%

BTTS 69.5% — — —

Home O1.5 61.8% 64.5% 1.55 -4.2%

Away O1.5 49.0% 70.4% 1.42 -30.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 26 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 65%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 73%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -24.7%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 63%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob69.5%

H 45% / xG 2.1-1.9 / O2.5 71% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.2%

#2 2–1 7.6%

#3 2–2 7.3%

#4 1–2 6.9%

#5 3–1 5.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

P-Iirot2.1

Ilves II1.9

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 70.8% · O3.5 PROB 49.7%

Form & verdict PPG

P-IIROT · PPG 2.50

ILVES II · PPG 1.67

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.21 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

P-Iirot (H) 44.7%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV +14.0%

Draw 21.6%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -8.8%

Ilves II (A) 33.7%

ODDS 2.08 · IMPLIED 48.1% EV -29.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

P-Iirot face Ilves II in Finland - Kakkonen Group B on Friday, July 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives P-Iirot a 45% chance, the draw 22% and Ilves II 34%, so P-Iirot are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for P-Iirot and 1.9 for Ilves II (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 71% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, P-Iirot are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 1.67 for Ilves II.

P-Iirot vs Ilves II Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group B

Match Preview & Prediction

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