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Ilves B vs Honka Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group B

Group B ·Saturday, July 18, 2026, 15:00

Ilves B

PPG 2.17 · HOME

UPCOMING

Honka

PPG 3.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.2% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.8%0-14.8%0-26.2%0-35.3%0-4+6.4%1 1-02.6%1-16.7%1-28.7%1-37.5%1-4+9.0%2 2-01.8%2-14.7%2-26.1%2-35.3%2-4+6.3%3 3-00.9%3-12.2%3-22.9%3-32.5%3-4+3.0%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-11.1%4+-21.4%4+-31.2%4+-4+1.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 22.6% 22.2% 4.50 +1.0%

Draw 20.8% 25.6% 3.90 -11.3%

Away win 56.6% 64.5% 1.55 -12.3%

Over 2.5 67.2% 75.2% 1.33 -10.6%

Over 3.5 48.9% 55.6% 1.80 -12.0%

BTTS 63.8% 73.5% 1.36 -13.2%

Home O1.5 45.8% 40.0% 2.50 +14.5%

Away O1.5 67.9% 73.5% 1.36 -7.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 68%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 27%

ROI -26.3%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 71%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)2.6 BTTS prob63.8%

A 57% / xG 1.4-2.6 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 8.7%

#2 1–1 6.7%

#3 1–3 7.5%

#4 0–2 6.2%

#5 2–2 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ilves B1.4

Honka2.6

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.2% · O3.5 PROB 48.9%

Form & verdict PPG

ILVES B · PPG 2.17

HONKA · PPG 3.00

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (3.00) vs Home EXCELLENT (2.17)

Win probability 1X2

Ilves B (H) 22.6%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV +1.0%

Draw 20.8%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -11.3%

Honka (A) 56.6%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV -12.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ilves B face Honka in Finland - Kakkonen Group B on Saturday, July 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ilves B a 23% chance, the draw 21% and Honka 57%, so Honka are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Ilves B and 2.6 for Honka (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ilves B are averaging 2.17 points per game versus 3.00 for Honka. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +14.5%.

Ilves B vs Honka Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group B

Match Preview & Prediction

More Finland - Kakkonen Group B Predictions