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HJS Akatemia vs EBK Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group B

Group B · Matchday 14 ·Friday, July 24, 2026, 15:30

HJS Akatemia

PPG 1.67 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLLL

5 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

EBK

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWLD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 72% chance

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 63.7% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-14.2%0-22.1%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-09.1%1-19.1%1-24.6%1-31.5%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.9%2-19.9%2-24.9%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-07.1%3-17.1%3-23.6%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-06.4%4+-16.4%4+-23.2%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.0% 74.1% 1.35 -23.1%

Draw 22.5% 22.2% 4.50 +0.8%

Away win 20.4% 15.4% 6.50 +19.6%

Over 2.5 63.7% 75.2% 1.33 -15.3%

Over 3.5 40.9% 55.6% 1.80 -26.4%

BTTS 60.1% 69.4% 1.44 -13.5%

Home O1.5 61.8% 76.9% 1.30 -19.7%

Away O1.5 30.0% 38.2% 2.62 -21.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 66%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-3

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob60.1%

H 57% / xG 2.2-1.0 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.1%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.9%

#4 1–0 9.1%

#5 3–1 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

HJS Akatemia2.2

EBK1.0

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 40.9%

Form & verdict PPG

HJS AKATEMIA · PPG 1.67

EBK · PPG 0.67

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

72%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.17 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

HJS Akatemia (H) 57.0%

ODDS 1.35 · IMPLIED 74.1% EV -23.1%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV +0.8%

EBK (A) 20.4%

ODDS 6.50 · IMPLIED 15.4% EV +19.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

HJS Akatemia face EBK in Finland - Kakkonen Group B on Friday, July 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives HJS Akatemia a 57% chance, the draw 23% and EBK 20%, so HJS Akatemia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for HJS Akatemia and 1.0 for EBK (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, HJS Akatemia are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 0.67 for EBK. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +32.4%. This match finished 5-3.

HJS Akatemia vs EBK Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group B

Match Preview & Prediction

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