Today / Finland - Kakkonen Group B / NJS vs ÅIFK

NJS vs ÅIFK Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group B

Group B · Matchday 14 ·Friday, July 24, 2026, 16:00

NJS

PPG 0.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLLW

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

ÅIFK

PPG 2.33 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWWL

// Model verdict

Away 84% chance

Model probability 69.3% vs bookmaker-implied 90.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.9%0-18.5%0-212.5%0-312.2%0-4+18.4%1 1-01.8%1-15.2%1-27.6%1-37.4%1-4+11.2%2 2-00.5%2-11.6%2-22.3%2-32.2%2-4+3.4%3 3-00.1%3-10.3%3-20.5%3-30.5%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 13.3% 6.7% 15.00 +59.7%

Draw 17.4% 11.8% 8.50 +28.7%

Away win 69.3% 90.1% 1.11 -23.1%

Over 2.5 67.0% 80.0% 1.25 -16.3%

Over 3.5 44.5% 61.7% 1.62 -27.9%

BTTS 48.5% 57.1% 1.75 -15.1%

Home O1.5 33.3% 20.2% 4.95 +64.8%

Away O1.5 68.9% 89.3% 1.12 -22.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 66%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 4 60%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)2.9 BTTS prob48.5%

A 69% / xG 0.6-2.9 / O2.5 67% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 12.5%

#2 0–3 12.2%

#3 0–4 8.9%

#4 0–1 8.5%

#5 1–2✓ 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

NJS0.6

ÅIFK2.9

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.0% · O3.5 PROB 44.5%

Form & verdict PPG

NJS · PPG 0.00

ÅIFK · PPG 2.33

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

Chance this pick lands

84%

UPSET_VALUE

xG gap -2.33 for Away, form 0.00 vs 2.33

Win probability 1X2

NJS (H) 13.3%

ODDS 15.00 · IMPLIED 6.7% EV +59.7%

Draw 17.4%

ODDS 8.50 · IMPLIED 11.8% EV +28.7%

ÅIFK (A) 69.3%

ODDS 1.11 · IMPLIED 90.1% EV -23.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

NJS face ÅIFK in Finland - Kakkonen Group B on Friday, July 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives NJS a 13% chance, the draw 17% and ÅIFK 69%, so ÅIFK are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.6 for NJS and 2.9 for ÅIFK (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, NJS are averaging 0.00 points per game versus 2.33 for ÅIFK. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +101.5%. This match finished 1-2.

NJS vs ÅIFK Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group B

Match Preview & Prediction

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