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Ilves B vs GrIFK Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group B

Group B ·Tuesday, July 14, 2026, 16:00

Ilves B

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

GrIFK

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.1% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.7%0-13.3%0-22.0%0-30.8%0-4+0.3%1 1-06.5%1-17.8%1-24.8%1-31.9%1-4+0.8%2 2-07.7%2-19.4%2-25.7%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-06.2%3-17.5%3-24.6%3-31.9%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-06.6%4+-18.0%4+-24.8%4+-32.0%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.6% 64.5% 1.55 -13.8%

Draw 21.6% 25.0% 4.00 -8.2%

Away win 22.9% 22.7% 4.40 +0.5%

Over 2.5 67.1% 80.0% 1.25 -16.1%

Over 3.5 44.5% 61.7% 1.62 -27.9%

BTTS 62.9% 74.1% 1.35 -15.1%

Home O1.5 62.9% 78.1% 1.28 -19.5%

Away O1.5 37.7% 45.5% 2.20 -17.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 65%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 70%

Score Hit 30%

ROI -25.1%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 63%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob62.9%

H 56% / xG 2.4-1.2 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.4%

#2 1–1 7.8%

#3 2–0 7.7%

#4 3–1 7.5%

#5 3–0 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ilves B2.4

GrIFK1.2

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.1% · O3.5 PROB 44.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ILVES B · PPG 2.00

GRIFK · PPG 1.20

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.00) > Away AVERAGE (1.20)

Win probability 1X2

Ilves B (H) 55.6%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV -13.8%

Draw 21.6%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -8.2%

GrIFK (A) 22.9%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV +0.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ilves B face GrIFK in Finland - Kakkonen Group B on Tuesday, July 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ilves B a 56% chance, the draw 22% and GrIFK 23%, so Ilves B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Ilves B and 1.2 for GrIFK (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ilves B are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.20 for GrIFK. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +0.5%.

Ilves B vs GrIFK Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group B

Match Preview & Prediction

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