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EPS vs NJS Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group B

Group B · Matchday 13 ·Saturday, July 18, 2026, 14:00

EPS

PPG 1.33 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

NJS

PPG 0.17 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLLL 

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 76.2% vs bookmaker-implied 87.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.5%0-11.6%0-20.5%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-07.5%1-15.0%1-21.6%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-011.4%2-17.5%2-22.5%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-011.5%3-17.7%3-22.5%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-018.6%4+-112.4%4+-24.1%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 71.5% 89.3% 1.12 -19.9%

Draw 18.2% 14.3% 7.00 +16.4%

Away win 10.3% 7.7% 13.00 +20.3%

Over 2.5 67.1% 80.0% 1.25 -16.1%

Over 3.5 44.5% 59.9% 1.67 -25.7%

BTTS 52.6% 54.6% 1.83 -3.7%

Home O1.5 76.2% 87.0% 1.15 -12.4%

Away O1.5 21.6% 20.0% 5.00 +4.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 69%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 66%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)3.0 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob52.6%

H 72% / xG 3.0-0.7 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 11.5%

#2 2–0 11.4%

#3 4–0 8.8%

#4 3–1 7.7%

#5 2–1✓ 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

EPS3.0

NJS0.7

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.1% · O3.5 PROB 44.5%

Form & verdict PPG

EPS · PPG 1.33

NJS · PPG 0.17

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in AVERAGE form (1.33), Away POOR (0.17) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

EPS (H) 71.5%

ODDS 1.12 · IMPLIED 89.3% EV -19.9%

Draw 18.2%

ODDS 7.00 · IMPLIED 14.3% EV +16.4%

NJS (A) 10.3%

ODDS 13.00 · IMPLIED 7.7% EV +20.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

EPS face NJS in Finland - Kakkonen Group B on Saturday, July 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives EPS a 72% chance, the draw 18% and NJS 10%, so EPS are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.0 for EPS and 0.7 for NJS (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, EPS are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 0.17 for NJS. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +20.3%. This match finished 2-1.

EPS vs NJS Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group B

Match Preview & Prediction

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