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Hwaseong vs Asan Mugunghwa Prediction— South Korea - K League 2

Regular Season - 19 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 10:30

Hwaseong

PPG 1.58 · HOME

UPCOMING

Asan Mugunghwa

PPG 1.12 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.3% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.7%0-110.3%0-25.4%0-31.9%0-4+0.6%1 1-012.4%1-113.1%1-26.9%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-07.9%2-18.3%2-24.4%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-03.4%3-13.5%3-21.9%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.5%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.0% 46.5% 2.15 -5.4%

Draw 27.2% 30.3% 3.30 -6.1%

Away win 28.8% 32.3% 3.10 -6.4%

Over 2.5 50.0% 47.6% 2.10 +5.0%

Over 3.5 28.7% 26.7% 3.75 +4.6%

BTTS 52.3% 55.6% 1.80 -5.9%

Home O1.5 38.5% 44.4% 2.25 -13.4%

Away O1.5 36.4% 33.3% 3.00 +9.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 19 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 26%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -35.6%

Bet Hit 37%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 23%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.3%

H 44% / xG 1.3-1.1 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–0 9.7%

#3 1–0 12.4%

#4 2–1 8.3%

#5 0–1 10.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hwaseong1.3

Asan Mugunghwa1.1

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

HWASEONG · PPG 1.58

ASAN MUGUNGHWA · PPG 1.12

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.22, combined xG 2.33 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Hwaseong (H) 44.0%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -5.4%

Draw 27.2%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -6.1%

Asan Mugunghwa (A) 28.8%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -6.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hwaseong face Asan Mugunghwa in South Korea - K League 2 on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hwaseong a 44% chance, the draw 27% and Asan Mugunghwa 29%, so Hwaseong are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Hwaseong and 1.1 for Asan Mugunghwa (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hwaseong are averaging 1.58 points per game versus 1.12 for Asan Mugunghwa. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +9.2%.

Hwaseong vs Asan Mugunghwa Prediction— South Korea - K League 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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