Today / South Korea - K League 2 / Gimhae City vs Cheongju

Gimhae City vs Cheongju Prediction— South Korea - K League 2

Regular Season - 19 ·Friday, July 24, 2026, 10:30

Gimhae City

PPG 0.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Cheongju

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.8 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.7% vs bookmaker-implied 47.6% — a clear edge.

+27.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.1%0-110.9%0-29.7%0-35.8%0-4+3.9%1 1-06.2%1-111.0%1-29.8%1-35.9%1-4+3.9%2 2-03.1%2-15.6%2-25.0%2-33.0%2-4+2.0%3 3-01.1%3-11.9%3-21.7%3-31.0%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.6%4+-20.5%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 21.6% 33.3% 3.00 -21.1%

Draw 22.8% 31.3% 3.20 -16.2%

Away win 55.5% 44.4% 2.25 +24.9%

Over 2.5 60.7% 47.6% 2.10 +27.5%

Over 3.5 37.5% 27.0% 3.70 +38.8%

BTTS 55.4% 55.6% 1.80 -0.3%

Home O1.5 35.0% 34.5% 2.90 +1.5%

Away O1.5 49.0% 42.6% 2.35 +15.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 19 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 26%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -35.6%

Bet Hit 37%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 49%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob55.4%

A 56% / xG 1.0-1.8 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.0%

#2 1–2 9.8%

#3 0–2 9.7%

#4 0–1 10.9%

#5 0–0 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gimhae City1.0

Cheongju1.8

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.7% · O3.5 PROB 37.5%

Form & verdict PPG

GIMHAE CITY · PPG 0.00

CHEONGJU · PPG 1.25

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.78 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Gimhae City (H) 21.6%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -21.1%

Draw 22.8%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -16.2%

Cheongju (A) 55.5%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +24.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gimhae City face Cheongju in South Korea - K League 2 on Friday, July 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gimhae City a 22% chance, the draw 23% and Cheongju 56%, so Cheongju are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Gimhae City and 1.8 for Cheongju (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gimhae City are averaging 0.00 points per game versus 1.25 for Cheongju. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +38.8%.

Gimhae City vs Cheongju Prediction— South Korea - K League 2

Match Preview & Prediction

More South Korea - K League 2 Predictions