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Gimhae City vs Cheongju Prediction— South Korea - K League 2

Matchday 19 ·Friday, July 24, 2026, 10:30

Gimhae City

PPG 0.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLLD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Cheongju

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWDLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 51% chance

Combined xG of 2.8 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.5% vs bookmaker-implied 47.6% — a clear edge.

+24.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.3%0-111.1%0-29.8%0-35.7%0-4+3.8%1 1-06.3%1-111.1%1-29.8%1-35.8%1-4+3.8%2 2-03.2%2-15.6%2-24.9%2-32.9%2-4+1.9%3 3-01.1%3-11.9%3-21.6%3-31.0%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.6%4+-20.5%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 21.6% 33.3% 3.00 -21.1%

Draw 23.1% 30.8% 3.25 -14.9%

Away win 55.3% 45.5% 2.20 +21.7%

Over 2.5 59.5% 47.6% 2.10 +24.9%

Over 3.5 36.4% 27.0% 3.70 +34.7%

BTTS 55.4% 55.6% 1.80 -0.3%

Home O1.5 35.0% 33.9% 2.95 +3.3%

Away O1.5 49.0% 43.5% 2.30 +12.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 73 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -25.4%

Bet Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob55.4%

A 55% / xG 1.0-1.8 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 11.1%

#2 1–2 9.8%

#3 0–2 9.8%

#4 0–1 11.1%

#5 0–0 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gimhae City1.0

Cheongju1.8

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.5% · O3.5 PROB 36.4%

Form & verdict PPG

GIMHAE CITY · PPG 0.00

CHEONGJU · PPG 1.25

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

Chance this pick lands

51%

DANGER

xG gap -0.76 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Gimhae City (H) 21.6%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -21.1%

Draw 23.1%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -14.9%

Cheongju (A) 55.3%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +21.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gimhae City face Cheongju in South Korea - K League 2 on Friday, July 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gimhae City a 22% chance, the draw 23% and Cheongju 55%, so Cheongju are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Gimhae City and 1.8 for Cheongju (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gimhae City are averaging 0.00 points per game versus 1.25 for Cheongju. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +34.7%. This match finished 1-1.

Gimhae City vs Cheongju Prediction— South Korea - K League 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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