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Busan I Park vs Suwon Bluewings Prediction— South Korea - K League 2

Regular Season - 19 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 10:30

Busan I Park

PPG 2.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Suwon Bluewings

PPG 1.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.2% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.6%0-19.1%0-24.8%0-31.7%0-4+0.5%1 1-012.1%1-112.7%1-26.7%1-32.3%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.5%2-18.9%2-24.7%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-03.9%3-14.1%3-22.2%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-12.0%4+-21.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.5% 32.3% 3.10 +50.3%

Draw 25.3% 29.9% 3.35 -9.2%

Away win 26.2% 46.5% 2.15 -26.2%

Over 2.5 51.3% 55.6% 1.80 -7.7%

Over 3.5 30.3% 33.3% 3.00 -9.1%

BTTS 54.2% 61.7% 1.62 -12.2%

Home O1.5 44.7% 38.5% 2.60 +16.2%

Away O1.5 36.4% 48.8% 2.05 -25.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 19 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 26%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -35.6%

Bet Hit 37%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 27%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.2%

H 48% / xG 1.4-1.1 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 0–0 8.6%

#3 1–0 12.1%

#4 2–1 8.9%

#5 2–0 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Busan I Park1.4

Suwon Bluewings1.1

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.3% · O3.5 PROB 30.3%

Form & verdict PPG

BUSAN I PARK · PPG 2.50

SUWON BLUEWINGS · PPG 1.88

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.35, combined xG 2.45 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Busan I Park (H) 48.5%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +50.3%

Draw 25.3%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -9.2%

Suwon Bluewings (A) 26.2%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -26.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Busan I Park face Suwon Bluewings in South Korea - K League 2 on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Busan I Park a 49% chance, the draw 25% and Suwon Bluewings 26%, so Busan I Park are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Busan I Park and 1.1 for Suwon Bluewings (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Busan I Park are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 1.88 for Suwon Bluewings. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +22.9%.

Busan I Park vs Suwon Bluewings Prediction— South Korea - K League 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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