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Gyeongnam vs Ansan Greeners Prediction— South Korea - K League 2

Regular Season - 18 ·Sunday, July 19, 2026, 10:30

Gyeongnam

PPG 1.56 · HOME

UPCOMING

Ansan Greeners

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 62.4% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5% — a clear edge.

+10.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-16.3%0-24.0%0-31.7%0-4+0.7%1 1-08.7%1-111.0%1-26.9%1-32.9%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.5%2-19.5%2-26.0%2-32.5%2-4+1.0%3 3-04.3%3-15.5%3-23.5%3-31.5%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-13.5%4+-22.2%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.0% 54.6% 1.83 -10.3%

Draw 24.0% 29.4% 3.40 -11.0%

Away win 27.0% 25.3% 3.95 +4.0%

Over 2.5 60.9% 51.8% 1.93 +17.5%

Over 3.5 38.1% 29.9% 3.35 +27.6%

BTTS 62.4% 56.5% 1.77 +10.4%

Home O1.5 53.0% 51.3% 1.95 +3.4%

Away O1.5 37.7% 30.3% 3.30 +24.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 15 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 27%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -18.5%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob62.4%

H 49% / xG 1.7-1.3 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.0%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 2–0 7.5%

#4 1–0 8.7%

#5 1–2 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gyeongnam1.7

Ansan Greeners1.3

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.9% · O3.5 PROB 38.1%

Form & verdict PPG

GYEONGNAM · PPG 1.56

ANSAN GREENERS · PPG 1.40

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.56), Away AVERAGE (1.40)

Win probability 1X2

Gyeongnam (H) 49.0%

ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV -10.3%

Draw 24.0%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -11.0%

Ansan Greeners (A) 27.0%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV +4.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gyeongnam face Ansan Greeners in South Korea - K League 2 on Sunday, July 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gyeongnam a 49% chance, the draw 24% and Ansan Greeners 27%, so Gyeongnam are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Gyeongnam and 1.3 for Ansan Greeners (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gyeongnam are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 1.40 for Ansan Greeners. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +27.6%.

Gyeongnam vs Ansan Greeners Prediction— South Korea - K League 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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