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Yongin City vs Hwaseong Prediction— South Korea - K League 2

Regular Season - 18 ·Sunday, July 19, 2026, 10:30

Yongin City

PPG 0.89 · HOME

UPCOMING

Hwaseong

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.5% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.2%0-110.0%0-27.0%0-33.2%0-4+1.5%1 1-08.9%1-112.4%1-28.7%1-34.0%1-4+1.9%2 2-05.5%2-17.7%2-25.4%2-32.5%2-4+1.2%3 3-02.3%3-13.2%3-22.2%3-31.0%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.3%4+-20.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.4% 34.7% 2.88 +7.7%

Draw 27.2% 30.8% 3.25 -7.0%

Away win 35.3% 43.5% 2.30 -18.8%

Over 2.5 53.4% 50.0% 2.00 +6.8%

Over 3.5 32.3% 29.0% 3.45 +11.4%

BTTS 55.5% 58.8% 1.70 -5.7%

Home O1.5 38.7% 37.7% 2.65 +2.5%

Away O1.5 39.0% 43.5% 2.30 -10.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 15 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 27%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -18.5%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 27%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob55.5%

A 35% / xG 1.2-1.4 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 0–0 7.2%

#3 1–2 8.7%

#4 0–1 10.0%

#5 2–1 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Yongin City1.2

Hwaseong1.4

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.4% · O3.5 PROB 32.3%

Form & verdict PPG

YONGIN CITY · PPG 0.89

HWASEONG · PPG 1.50

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.50) vs Home POOR (0.89)

Win probability 1X2

Yongin City (H) 37.4%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV +7.7%

Draw 27.2%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -7.0%

Hwaseong (A) 35.3%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -18.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Yongin City face Hwaseong in South Korea - K League 2 on Sunday, July 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Yongin City a 37% chance, the draw 27% and Hwaseong 35%, so Yongin City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Yongin City and 1.4 for Hwaseong (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Yongin City are averaging 0.89 points per game versus 1.50 for Hwaseong. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +11.4%.

Yongin City vs Hwaseong Prediction— South Korea - K League 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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