Today / South Korea - K League 2 / Suwon Bluewings vs Paju Citizen

Suwon Bluewings vs Paju Citizen Prediction— South Korea - K League 2

Regular Season - 18 ·Sunday, July 19, 2026, 10:30

Suwon Bluewings

PPG 2.13 · HOME

UPCOMING

Paju Citizen

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.2% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.5%0-17.9%0-23.0%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-015.8%1-111.9%1-24.4%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.9%2-18.9%2-23.3%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-05.9%3-14.4%3-21.7%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-12.3%4+-20.9%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.2% 73.5% 1.36 -27.7%

Draw 26.9% 23.1% 4.33 +9.9%

Away win 19.9% 13.2% 7.60 +30.7%

Over 2.5 46.9% 58.8% 1.70 -20.3%

Over 3.5 27.8% 36.4% 2.75 -14.1%

BTTS 48.5% 54.1% 1.85 -10.3%

Home O1.5 46.0% 66.7% 1.50 -31.0%

Away O1.5 21.6% 22.2% 4.50 -1.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 15 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 27%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -18.5%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 32%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.5%

H 53% / xG 1.5-0.8 / U2.5 47% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.8%

#2 1–1 11.9%

#3 0–0 10.5%

#4 2–0 11.9%

#5 2–1 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Suwon Bluewings1.5

Paju Citizen0.8

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.9% · O3.5 PROB 27.8%

Form & verdict PPG

SUWON BLUEWINGS · PPG 2.13

PAJU CITIZEN · PPG 1.25

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.13) vs P(Home)=53.2%

Win probability 1X2

Suwon Bluewings (H) 53.2%

ODDS 1.36 · IMPLIED 73.5% EV -27.7%

Draw 26.9%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +9.9%

Paju Citizen (A) 19.9%

ODDS 7.60 · IMPLIED 13.2% EV +30.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Suwon Bluewings face Paju Citizen in South Korea - K League 2 on Sunday, July 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Suwon Bluewings a 53% chance, the draw 27% and Paju Citizen 20%, so Suwon Bluewings are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Suwon Bluewings and 0.8 for Paju Citizen (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Suwon Bluewings are averaging 2.13 points per game versus 1.25 for Paju Citizen. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +30.7%.

Suwon Bluewings vs Paju Citizen Prediction— South Korea - K League 2

Match Preview & Prediction

More South Korea - K League 2 Predictions