Today / South Korea - K League 2 / Cheongju vs Cheonan City

Cheongju vs Cheonan City Prediction— South Korea - K League 2

Regular Season - 18 ·Sunday, July 19, 2026, 10:30

Cheongju

PPG 0.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Cheonan City

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.9% vs bookmaker-implied 51.8% — a clear edge.

+17.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-19.2%0-27.5%0-34.1%0-4+2.4%1 1-07.0%1-111.4%1-29.4%1-35.1%1-4+3.0%2 2-04.3%2-17.1%2-25.8%2-33.2%2-4+1.9%3 3-01.8%3-12.9%3-22.4%3-31.3%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.2%4+-21.0%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.2% 37.0% 2.70 -13.1%

Draw 25.1% 30.8% 3.25 -11.1%

Away win 42.6% 40.8% 2.45 +4.4%

Over 2.5 60.9% 51.8% 1.93 +17.5%

Over 3.5 37.4% 29.9% 3.35 +25.3%

BTTS 60.0% 58.8% 1.70 +2.0%

Home O1.5 38.7% 39.2% 2.55 -1.3%

Away O1.5 50.2% 42.6% 2.35 +18.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 15 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 27%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -18.5%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 46%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob60.0%

A 43% / xG 1.2-1.6 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 1–2 9.4%

#3 0–2 7.5%

#4 0–1 9.2%

#5 0–0 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cheongju1.2

Cheonan City1.6

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.9% · O3.5 PROB 37.4%

Form & verdict PPG

CHEONGJU · PPG 0.50

CHEONAN CITY · PPG 1.14

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.14) vs Home POOR (0.50)

Win probability 1X2

Cheongju (H) 32.2%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -13.1%

Draw 25.1%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -11.1%

Cheonan City (A) 42.6%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV +4.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cheongju face Cheonan City in South Korea - K League 2 on Sunday, July 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cheongju a 32% chance, the draw 25% and Cheonan City 43%, so Cheonan City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Cheongju and 1.6 for Cheonan City (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cheongju are averaging 0.50 points per game versus 1.14 for Cheonan City. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +25.3%.

Cheongju vs Cheonan City Prediction— South Korea - K League 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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