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Gimpo vs Daegu Prediction— South Korea - K League 2

Regular Season - 18 ·Saturday, July 18, 2026, 10:30

Gimpo

PPG 0.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Daegu

PPG 1.71 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 63.1% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5% — a clear edge.

+11.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-18.5%0-28.0%0-35.1%0-4+3.7%1 1-05.5%1-110.3%1-29.7%1-36.1%1-4+4.4%2 2-03.3%2-16.2%2-25.9%2-33.7%2-4+2.7%3 3-01.3%3-12.5%3-22.4%3-31.5%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-11.0%4+-20.9%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 22.4% 35.1% 2.85 -21.7%

Draw 21.4% 29.9% 3.35 -17.0%

Away win 56.2% 44.4% 2.25 +26.5%

Over 2.5 63.1% 56.5% 1.77 +11.7%

Over 3.5 40.1% 33.9% 2.95 +18.3%

BTTS 60.0% 62.5% 1.60 -4.0%

Home O1.5 38.2% 41.7% 2.40 -8.3%

Away O1.5 50.2% 47.6% 2.10 +5.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 11 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 73%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -14.4%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 60%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob60.0%

A 56% / xG 1.2-1.9 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.3%

#2 1–2 9.7%

#3 0–2 8.0%

#4 0–1 8.5%

#5 2–1 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gimpo1.2

Daegu1.9

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.1% · O3.5 PROB 40.1%

Form & verdict PPG

GIMPO · PPG 0.50

DAEGU · PPG 1.71

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.71) vs Home POOR (0.50)

Win probability 1X2

Gimpo (H) 22.4%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV -21.7%

Draw 21.4%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -17.0%

Daegu (A) 56.2%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +26.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gimpo face Daegu in South Korea - K League 2 on Saturday, July 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gimpo a 22% chance, the draw 21% and Daegu 56%, so Daegu are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Gimpo and 1.9 for Daegu (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gimpo are averaging 0.50 points per game versus 1.71 for Daegu. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +28.1%.

Gimpo vs Daegu Prediction— South Korea - K League 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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